Happy new year.
(Edit 11:39) I have an ongoing email correspondence with a couple pals, whose work you may have read at Biiwii.com/analysis or other commentary sites. The subject of contrary indications in the gold bug community has come up with a friend noting that [They'll] be disappointed with your measley 920 call...most say 1200 by Thursday lunchtime and will blame Cheney, Bennyboy and Paulson if it doesn't get there. In this regard, I am not sure if I have explained that the target of 920-940 is just that, a short to intermediate term target. Beyond that I have no opinion, bullish or bearish because the data is not yet in. In the biggest of pictures - which I'll define as several years out in a secular run - I think gold is going into 4 digits with a 2 as the first digit. But immediately beyond this triangle breakout, I have no opinion.
(Edit 11:59) And a concurrent correspondence...
Here is the how Claude; the gold miners' cost inputs include oil & industrial metals, along w/ human resources. All those inputs have risen in cost during the economic expansion phase and gold did well but underperformed, which negatively impacted its miners' bottom lines. In a contraction or contractionary impulse phase, gold falling LESS than oil, GYX & employment would create margin for the miners. So I would see the metal as a long term 'value' proposition and the miners as a leveraged 'play' on the metal. The miners are where the real action would be if we get the right mix of intermarket fundamentals.