Wednesday, May 7, 2008
The bet is on!
My friend Otto Rock - a much smarter fundamental stock analyst than me - has made a bet with yours' truly that gold will see 900 before it sees 850. Of course Otto is right about the fundamentals and I expect that 900 level to be vaporized in a rush to much higher levels sometime over the next 6 months. But short term there is the matter of the resetting dow/gold ratio. As he mentioned, this is not child's play. There is enough money involved to buy beer! By my eye, gold has support at 850, 800 (round number) and then lower at 750 (measured off topping pattern) which would be bought like crazy and might likely only happen in a one day blaze of angst, glory and reversal. Edit (1:37) Well, this was one ill researched bet. While gold still looks short term bearish by several metrics a caveat is that I just noticed it is back above the would-be H&S neck line, thus negating (for now) the target of $750 and possibly any additional downside. While I still think lower is in the cards, with the gold miners probing for a bottom I must give weight to the idea that I might lose this bet to this brash fundy guy. :-(