Wednesday, June 18, 2008
S&P 500: Big picture
I actually thought I might try to catch a bounce somewhere in here. I considered putting on a contrarian cap for the US market given the daily expressions of public fear and angst. But this big picture of the SPX, aided by my old friend the Andrews Fork, said "err, Gary... you sure you wanna do that?" Best to just keep cash at decent levels and await opportunities in areas that really matter to you." On the plus side, a rebound toward the broken lower tine of the fork would feel mighty good to relieved bulls. But the risk is just too high here in my opinion to be fooling around with this. Maybe a Hong Kong trade (China has not broken trends) or something like that will present itself but for the moment I am avoiding this mess.