"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Gold-Oil Ratio: Continues to be bullish

The Gold-Oil Ratio (GOR) does not necessarily indicate gold is bullish in nominal Dollar terms - although I believe it is. The GOR simply says that the risk vs. reward ratio for gold is superior to that of oil. The black goopy stuff can continue to the upside - although I don't think it has significant upside - but if the GOR is indeed bottoming, it will not do so without gold outperforming. Likewise, if they both drop in a Deflate-o-rama scare, gold will likely fair much better. This makes sense because the media's neatly packaged 'credit crisis' is returning to the fore - and is that the Suzy Ormand cartoon I see on CNBC in Fast Money's [LOL] time slot? People are beginning to scurry all over the deck again. They will run to cash and gold and might actually begin to question what have been their anti-Dollar safety blankets, the Euro and Oil. Neither of which stand to do so well in a global economic contraction. Oil is over bought to epic proportions. But here is the disclaimer; I have been a damn lousy oil caller for years now, as you may know. ;-)

BTW, I just noticed on the chart under the 'ROC' sub-panel, I wrote Rate of chance bullish divergence. That is obviously 'Rate of CHANGE' although this whole enchilada is basically a play on chances, isn't it?