"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

HUI - Current status

Here is Huey illustrated with some near term possibilities. The damage done to the precious metals complex - whether you believe it was at the hands of an evil cabal (really, wouldn't a world full of large speculators overly short the Dollar be more apt?) or just market forces correcting imbalances - was impulsive. So was Uncle Buck's first leg up. This means the damage will take time to repair.

That is why I got ahead of myself last week and pondered that any bottom (if that is indeed what this is) might only be point 'A' of an ABC correction. I am leaning toward this being a bottom of some note, due to the short term bullish divergence of the miners vs. gold (and silver) and the 'in the dumps' sentiment out there, but we want to see the STO get above 20 and that little symmetrical triangle-like object broken to the upside because if they don't, the 260's ultimate low target off the topping formation might come sooner rather than later.

So here are the possible scenarios as I currently see them in order of how they are favored:

1) HUI made a bottom in the 309's and will 'B' up to near the broken neckline around 400.

2) We will soon break to the downside toward target now that ridiculous over sold levels are being worn off ever so slightly.

3) This is THE rally to eventual new highs. Highly doubt it.

Edit (9:22) Adding a more bullish weekly interpretation of an ABC correction. Not my favored view but with the hammering of sentiment recently, it is certainly viable.