Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Gaps fill, Oil & Gas nearing value & reversals
Quickly before getting ready to go jam... The last two holdout gaps, in GLD (proxy for gold) and GDX (proxy for HUI) are filled. They were bugging me and if I was bullish on a near term rally before, why not now at a higher low and no gaps?
Oil & Gas are approaching value areas where I would consider buying for investment purposes thanks to manic depressive markets. Let's just call the UNG trade that I put out here a failure so that I don't have to baby sit it. Call it a loss so I don't feel obligated to write about it in the future. But I am holding it as value and would buy more except that there are other possibilities shaping up; namely oil (USO or DBO) or even short airlines. But with winter bearing down, I do not want to give up an energy hedge. So UNG stays in the portfolio indefinitely along with perhaps USO or DBO if we can get another spike lower, which with the Gustav hype having done so much damage today we may not get. But I tell that oil at 100 bucks looks good for a solid swing trade.
Meanwhile, I was pleased to see the hopeful hype wear off on the stock market yet again as that pig just sank under its own weight. Also, did you catch the reversals in treasuries? Something to keep an eye on. The script still makes sense to me as something like this:
1) Uncle Buck tops
2) Commodities bottom and rally... taking gold with them
3) Stock market legs down, eventually taking commodities down again and yes, gold too
4) Deflation Scare Central as Uncle Buck bottoms for next leg up and assault on 80/81
5) Euro goes pfffftt, oil down for a long count
6) Economic anxiety at a fever pitch accompanied by calls for government to DO SOMETHING. Gold says 'errr, I think that's my cue'