Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Gary (just plain gettin' tired of hearin' myself talk) ;-)
Edit (1/16 @ 6:17 am) I want to add that the Biiwii.com website will function as usual with a continued emphasis on the most solid news and analysis we can find. Actually it will be better because now it is no longer run by a stressed out web master, business person, rock band player, dad and blogger. Just the first four. The blog will likely remain up as a posting place for occasional things I find important or for the odd commentary I may submit to other sites. But the day to day market watching is kaput. Too much work for too little return. If you'd like charts, by all means consider using TA onDemand. Put me in coach! :-)
Monday, January 14, 2008
PS: I disabled comments as there is a gnat buzzing around looking for attention and taking up too much of my time filtering out the foolishness. Have a great day.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Friday, January 11, 2008
Separately, here's Mr. Moskow on just how desperate the situation is for the hopped up financially engineered segment of the economy. Risks are not on the inflation side? Maybe he's right because for gold to hit the inflation adjusted level of oil, using the 1970's as the basis, gold should be over $2000 - hence my oft repeated longer term target.
CHICAGO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Former Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Michael Moskow said on Friday that the U.S. central bank is likely to be "very aggressive" on interest rate cuts at its next few meetings.
The Fed "clearly has to understand that the risks are on the growth side, not the inflation side," Moskow said while answering questions from the audience after a speech on the economy to a business group in Chicago.
Moskow said there was still debate about whether the Federal Open Market Committee would cut rates by 25 basis points or by 50 basis points on Jan 30.
"I'm guessing there's at least another 50 basis points there" in terms of rate cuts after January, he said.
Moskow was making his first comments on the economy since retiring from the Fed in August. He is currently a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Monday, January 7, 2008
Separately, it is really neat when I find that unsolicited donations have shown up in the PayPal account for no other reason than someone is finding value here. I will never tire of saying thank you. Also, thanks to those of you who have used the TA onDemand service. It's a nice model; order comes in, I get to work.
Friday, January 4, 2008
It is interesting to note that oil's all time highs are being jiggered in the media to adjust for inflation and not panic people (it's only at the 1970's levels!) while the barbarous relic of the past has not nearly kept up with inflation. "Who would own such a bum asset?" asks the average paper pusher. This is a big part of the reason for our $2000+ eventual (years out) target; catch up moves can be a bitch. Meanwhile, in the here and now, we await a break of the downtrend in the Gold-Oil Ratio. Here is a chart with an interesting correlation to the USD for your consideration.
Click charts to enlarge
Thursday, January 3, 2008
A couple notes: I picked these on 1/1/08. PAL (I don't own it) was a replacement for my original pick (YNG.to, which I also don't own) which was disallowed due to its Toronto listing. I own GSS and I picked AMZN short (currently short nothing in real life), which I think may be my undoing in this contest. You know I deplore the casino mentality and generally do not have a high regard for owning stocks as anything other than short to intermediate term profit vehicles (there are very few I consider indefinite holds), but this is fun and even we gloomy Gus's get to have fun once in a while.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
The stated goal is 20-40% per year, up market or down, while managing risk (keeping relatively high cash levels) at all times. 11% cannot be considered a very successful year but 2007 was a buzz saw and the cash discipline kept me in the game through some very painful periods (at one point the port declined from +18% to -2% in the span of a very few weeks). There was a very costly vacation last summer during which I mostly let things ride and also recently a transfer out of e*trade (I shot first and asked questions later despite their pleas that all was well) during which I had to ride a couple things down lower than I would have liked.
The way I run the portfolio, I simply will not ever have a year where I make a killing (100%+ like you see some places) because I am never 'all in' and do not take the risks needed to accomplish that type of gain. But I should always outperform the broad market with another stated goal being to at least double the broad market's performance to the upside and avoid entirely any significant downside. That goal was in essence accomplished although 11% is not much better than the Nasdaq's performance.
SHV (US T-bill fund) @ 36.5%
Gold/Silver miners (w/ some base metals exposure) @ 29.8%
Cash Reserve (current yield 4.7%) @ 20.8%
Uranium miners @ 5.3%
Base metal & gold royalty company @ 4.9%
Canadian Oil & Gas royalty trust @ 2.7%
Again, I want to wish you dear readers good luck in 2008. Keep your heads screwed on straight in the face of what is sure to be a blizzard of conflicting information coming at us.