"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, October 31, 2008

Strat great but here's a classic...

File this useless post under 'just because'. Our drummer sent this to me (with my head cut off - hey, it works for me) from Tuesday night's jam. Here is a classic '66 Fender Mustang. As I just mentioned to Inflation Nation / Ron Paul Songs guy Steve in an email, the thing is like playing a mummy. Smells old and sucks the moisture right out of my hands. But a distinct sound indeed.

We are now at the rehearsal stage with several original songs. Will upload some stuff when we get rough recordings at least.

Funniest post I've ever read

Compliments of a man who is a resource I hope you are taking advantage of, the one and only Otto.

Don't Forget Your Doom Mask for Tomorrow (today) People

Besides being a deep stock fundamental 'arm' of NFTRH when called upon, he is one smart and funny dood. We have sort of taken to each other and only part of it revolves around similar ways of looking at the financial world. We first bonded through back and forth emails about one of my favorite guitarists, John Frusciante and have since found common ground in many areas. Apparently, eff'd up humor being one of them. Edit (1:27) Thought I'd add a couple other scary masks from this blog's recent past. Happy Halloween!

HUI-Gold Ratio

First off, after three up days the gold stocks are due for a pullback or back'n fill. But this is three straight up days for the first time since August and I think that means something. But nominal HUI has not 'up triggered' by daily MACD and has still not done anything technically to distinguish this from any other relief rally. But I am expecting this or any coming bottom to be the kind that we will only be able to see in the rear view mirror.

I believe the 150 target noted a couple weeks ago in NFTRH (pdf) will prove to be THE bottom (150.27), but this is not conclusive at this point and thus far, target setting has been an exercise in frustration; H&S top begets 250, a break of which begets 220, a break of which begets 150-175.

Let's 'hope' the progression stops there. Once we are able to get the bottoming process in the rear view mirror, I look forward to having some fun with the letter, the launch of which could have been timed better. But then if you observe the writer during historically bad times you get a better idea of what he is about than in a rising tide lifts all boats environment. Yuh? But the time is coming where we can have some fun focusing on and charting some individual stocks in the sector.

So, with the preamble about bottoming over with, let's move on to the HUI-Gold ratio. Here is a weekly chart which is really self-explanatory; upon a sector bottom, gold miners can be expected to display that elusive leverage to the price of gold they have been noted for in the past. The problem is that legions of crack users have been expecting it and lamenting its absence during the entirety of an inflation fueled cyclical phase when the miners' cost inputs outperformed their product.

I am not going to write more because a) I have written about this stuff for years and b) I want to save some other details for subscribers. Otherwise I'll put myself out of business. ;-)

Thursday, October 30, 2008

BullionVault

There is nothing so nice as to start my morning rounds of financial work, reading and account reviews and upon logging into my BullionVault account, finding that people have ordered in the last 24 hours and commission is sitting there waiting to be turned into gold bullion. One mouse click and... bullion stored in Zurich. I tend to just buy it and store it, but I have also cashed some out.

Remember that Fender Strat with the bridge position humbucker I posted here a few months ago? Well, let's just say one form of enduring value was liquidated to buy another and unlike gold, which just sits there being all heavy and shiny, this things rocks. But the point is, BullionVault works equally well for people looking to store gold in their country of choice and for those who want to easily trade gold's massive ups and downs outside normal market hours. It really is a great tool to have in the financial toolbox. Recommended.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Deflated

Every time I feel deflated... every time I question my stance (which is not gold bullish so much as gold bullish V. everything else but short term Uncle Buck) I snap myself out of it with an internal reminder; gold-oil? gold-gyx? gold-human hopes for prosperity? All ratios bullish and contributing to the gold miners' bottom lines as I type. The gold-oil chart I showed in NFTRH this week should make sense in its correlation to the dollar.

Every time I feel deflated I think that this is how I am supposed to feel. The news is terrible in that the banks are hoarding the taxpayers' gift (at gunpoint) of cash. Oh and one other little detail... the deflationists are becoming a bit strident, and they are simply coming out of the woodwork! For the longest time there was Prechter. There was Shilling. Along came Mish and Panzner. But now they are everywhere and they have got a big fat 'I told you so!' waiting for any casino patrons still twitching out there.

Today gold stocks, and markets in general are up big. This could be another hope bounce on the way to dispirited hopelessness. Or the downside mania could simply have worn itself out and expired. My guess - and it's just a guess - is that this is not the real rally. But I hope I am wrong because I continue to hold to my gold stock fundamental underpinning noted above because THE DAMN THING HAS NOT CHANGED with this deflation impulse. It has only improved.

What inspired this post is a comment that appeared on Seeking Alpha's reprint of my article 'Epic' where a deflationist misinterpreted me as saying the price of gold was going to experience epic gains. That is because SA retitles commentary and they titled it 'Expecting Epic Gains in Gold' (since corrected) even though there was nothing in there about gold. The epic gains, if my fundas are correct will be in the gold miners due to said ratios.

Anyway, the deflationists are coming out of the woodwork and I cannot change who I am and who I am is someone who gets mighty suspicious of manic things like the 2003-2007 commodity bull featuring hysterical peak oil and China stories. I am now mighty suspicious of the deflation story as a long term structural thing. I am usually early to the party and yeh, I thought the gold miners would do better in the deflation impulse, but everything has gone to hell in a handbasket in a forced liquidation frenzy. So, deflation is here. All it has done is improve the operations of gold mining businesses. On that alone I expect that the current downside has been over done to epic proportions. And if we ever get the herd back to thinking inflation is even remotely possible?

These idiot wizards in Washington screwed up by giving the funny munny to the banks without directive. What happens if they start injecting it directly into the economy? Last I heard there were already operations in progress to fund non financial (AKA productive) companies. Bernanke told us in 2002 why 'IT' will never happen here and he is going to keep 'IT' from happening or crash his helicopter trying.

We may get a deflationary depression, but the longer this manic down phase continues unabated, the more I doubt it. BTW, just in the duration of this post the markets have absolutely flipped their lids. Will I need to revisit my reservations about a bottom being in?

Inflation Watch - Saville

An updated look at the inflation picture (or should we call it the DEFLATION picture?) from Steve Saville: Inflation Watch

Very worth your read because this is not a drill. This is time to get it right. As Bob Hoye said in the Howe Street Audio interview located here, [paraphrased] "it is a privilege to be participating in these historic times in the markets."

I feel that way myself. This is simply the most amazing time most of us younger than 80 could imagine. But it is going to long be remembered as an amazing disaster if we do not get it right. For me, that continues to mean a balance between preservation - where designated - and the assumption of risk - again, where designated. Because when inflation gets out of the bag this time, it is going to be severe.

Just think of all the anxiety $147 oil caused just a few short months ago. Well, any economic recovery is going to be accompanied by those same forces... on steroids. And economic recovery any time soon is far from likely. But if/when it happens, you had better be inflation protected and I am not talking TIPS.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Here it comes

Everything is lining up to what was speculated (I think) in one of the email updates last week and in this week's NFTRH. Namely, the symmetrical triangles on Dow & SPX appear to be breaking down into a possible capitulation. Same goes for gold stocks, minus the sym-tri's. HUI has not broken Friday's lows but certainly looks like it wants to do so.

Unfortunately, it looks like too many people are trying to micro manage a USD top and as Jack Chan mentioned, there is apparently still too much bearishness on the USD. I have heard some folks talking as if a cataclysmic decline in Uncle Buck is imminent. The USD mania has the look of something that can continue to frustrate top callers for a while yet. My ultimate target for USD is around 90, but that included a pullback before approaching that level. If it makes it all the way in one manic leg, well, that is not healthy for our dear old uncle. Mania never is. I am becoming more bearish the dollar than I have been in a long while, but again as mentioned previously, calling a blow off top is impossible.

If it happens, we could get the capitulations in many markets that have thus far remained elusive, hard as that is to believe. Gold looks vulnerable as well to our target of 650 but a target is just a neatly drawn line on a chart. This is Uncle Buck vs. the world and he is royally pissed.

I will probably send out an update in the morning. Right now I am sitting outside my daughter's karate class and I think I'll take the time to go do some browsing around on the day's events.

NFTRH

I am a little uncomfortable with self-promotion (I need to get over that ;-)) but here are the thoughts of a professional equities analyst on this week's Notes From the Rabbit Hole. Otto is my virtual friend, but neither of us are prone to b/s.

I put a lot of work into this thing so I may as well promote it. NFTRH is set up so that if it is not for you, it can be canceled after one month or any month thereafter. No yearly lock-in. Try it... like it? Keep up with it. Not for you? Cancel any time. If you are frequenting this blog, I think you will like it however.

Here is a copy of the opening segment: Epic

GM

From today's Wall Street Journal:

"As talks between General Motors Corp. and long-time rival Chrysler LLC continued over the weekend, a harsh reality has emerged: Without a merger and possibly an assist from the federal government, two of Detroit's Big Three auto makers could run out of cash within a year."

Since 2004 I have resisted some of the finer things in life (hello 46" plasma) and instead put extra money into things like a generator, wood stoves and that 9mm semi-automatic. Crazy survivalist? Nope, just a guy who is loath to take chances. With the looming credit crisis I also felt it was imperative to pay down what was a fairly large mortgage. While a balance remains, extra principle payments have knocked it down significantly. That balance will now be serviced by... gulp, a unit of Countrywide as per a rather impersonal notice last week from GMAC.

GM in preparation to buy Chrystler? GM in preparation for bankruptcy? We should find out shortly given the velocity with which events are unfolding.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Thank you sir or madam!

Thank you for the BullionVault commish! I immediately cycled the commission from your USD purchase into Zurich gold. I just love it when people buy these downside reactions rather than the upside hysterics. Just love it. Edit (11:24) Oooh and you too Mr. or Ms. Euro buyer. A tad more Zurich stored gold for me. Thank you! (11:48) Errr, let's add the GBP buyer to the list. Bravo bottom feeders. No hype chasers here.

We must not allow a mine shaft gap!



I like the plan here.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Sentiment bearish (bullish)



Look, this is the way I am wired. I get email from a respected analyst telling me the US Dollar is being manipulated higher by the US government? I get email insisting that the contraction in credit is unstoppable? I see that everyone and his uncle (Uncle Buck) is now an expert on deflation? Well, I see these things and I realize that the crash mania of October '08 is every bit as dangerous as the 'CNN said we're running out of oil!!!!!' mania (honestly, someone in my personal life reported this to me in hysterical fashion and I said 'thank you, top in' (and then proceeded to buy puts and sell them way too quickly -- dooohhhhh!).

Point is, the same crack heads that ran oil to 147... the same unhealthy holders (you surely remember me bemoaning them) of gold as part of the go-go inflation trade... many of these same tragically manic figures are now aboard a very different train.

I am not a hand holder. I could be very wrong. I could be the ultimate contrary indicator. But if you don't man up now and stick to your principles (whatever they may be), you are lost. Everyone who does not have the conviction I have should have been 100% cash a long time ago. Just as you cannot call the top of an up mania, calling a bottom of the down mania is just as futile. We just keep on breaking supports and sentiment just keeps on getting more bearish (bullish).

Yes, the credit contraction is on and it will likely not stop until it has done its job. Yes, the dollar is strong and is likely to remain so (to a less impulsive degree) vs. competing paper. Yes, a recession is here and likely a full on depression in the most gamed sectors of economies. So, what has changed? The credit bubble had to end. It ended. Now, what's next? That is the question.

I respect deflationists who unwaveringly held their ground through the inflation bubble. But there were maybe five or six of them that I'd heard of, led by Prechter. Now they're everywhere. The deflation impulse had to be respected and the bull only analysis so prevalent in the gold sector has been very damaging. I am bullish but far from bull only, especially on cyclical 'price' movements. I realize the above can be interpreted as rationalization in the face of insanely bearish price action. But it is what it is and yes, I could be wrong, but I interpret this as bullish just as I did the 'gold community' (what a terrible terrible phrase) running with the hopped up inflation trade as bearish. We will see where the pieces fall when the panic liquidation phase subsides.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Dear Fed: Why not buy gold miners?

I stumbled upon this Minyanville article by Lance Lewis and while I highlight a lot of what the 'deflationists' are saying lately, I thought I'd now link something from a fellow inflationista: Dear Fed: Why not buy gold miners? He talks about Nevsun resources selling for 20 million less than its cash value (it's got a negative enterprise value btw, I happened to be looking at this very stock today and was stunned to see that). No doubt there are financing issues surrounding the company's Bisha project, but this is more typical of the entire gold stock landscape. Yes, I know NSU is primarily a copper stock, but still. He mentions NGD, which I own. It's another hilarious value. I'll save mention of the other holdings for the newsletter, not that too many people are interested in these things anyway. But I tell you, I agree wholeheartedly with the article's premise.

One day, investors - and yeah, I have gone 100% investor - are going to be rewarded handsomely in this sector. But first all the victims of bullish-only hype must give up hope. Oh, and it would help if we can flush out the remainder of those hedgies hanging on by a thread. I choose to make like Buffett now and buy value and have patience. The USD? It ain't value. It's a price thing as casino patrons unwind in panic and place their claims upon the reserve currency.

If you can get outside the box - and I understand it is difficult to do so with all the horns and sirens sounding while markets go to hell in a handbasket - you just might see opportunity in and around here. I realize that is very unfashionable concept right now. Safety first (cash) after all, but with an eye toward what comes next. The way I see it, I am just getting contrary the same crack addicts that were chasing oil to 147 but now just gotta get themselves some of that USD value. It is good value now in the price casino, but if life goes on (and this is not indeed Armageddon, in which case what does any of it matter?) 'price' is not what I am interested in.

Silver-Gold ratio bullish divergence

The dollar is becoming manic. Gold is taking the gold bug killer hit, recession and deflation are front page items, the stock market bottom remains tentative at best... and silver is positively diverging to gold.

Divergence can creep along for a painfully long time as we know, but when the dark cloud passes silver is likely to lead gold amid the rush of optimism or, failing that, the void left by the dissipation of extreme fear.

It is interesting how the markets have played October to its classic reputation of a crash month. It is also a reversal or bottoming month quite often. Reference October 2002 when it made the bottom, which was then tested in the spring of 2003.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Acute panic phase easing?



Two signs that the acute phase of the liquidity panic is easing are the relief in the 3 month t-bill rate and Libor turning down. Of course a couple days do not make a trend but we are not going anywhere until these two charts get unstuck.

The Dollar AKA the major beneficiary of the panic, is over bought and gold, the other beneficiary is dropping as holders who bought in knee jerk fear dump out. With any luck this will lead to a more confident environment in time. By more confident, I mean not totally scared shitless. Hey, it'd be a start.

While we're at it, let's throw the yield curve (as represented by the TNX-IRX ratio) in here too. A rising yield curve is good for the gold miners but a violently rising curve, eating up liquidity in massive chunks, is not good for anybody as we found out. It is settling down here.

Credit Crisis Survival Kit

For the near term, everything EWI presents still holds sway. The banner directly above will take you to all the resources needed to navigate this mess in the here and now. Safety comes first. Then from that platform comes speculation on what lay ahead. Safety first. If you haven't yet done so, sign up and get it. It's free and it is easy to do. Sure, EWI wants viewers to buy their services but they will not bug you. The idea being that you get for free the vitals and become familiar with their research and services and make the personal decision that you want more. EWI explains:

Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

Before it became the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, the credit crisis used to be an arcane topic discussed only in financial publications. Now, it's on every computer, television screen, and front page of every newspaper in the world.

It may have you worried about what you can do to get through it with your personal finances still intact. What can you do about it?

Download Your Free Credit Crisis Survival Kit

Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, put together this free resource featuring 15 hand-picked reports and videos that will show you:

  1. How we got into this mess
  2. How to survive and prosper from it
  3. When you can expect the crisis to end

The detailed analysis covers topics worrying you and millions (if not billions) of other people around the world who are learning more and more about the dangers of the Credit Crisis every day.

Here are just 5 of the 15 topics covered:

  • How Do I Find a Safe Bank?
  • What Happens During a Credit Implosion?
  • How Do I Ride Out this Crisis?
  • What If You Can’t Sell Your House?
  • Buy & Hold or Sell & Fold?

US Dollar

The dollar is getting over bought on daily and weekly charts, although the big picture monthly shows room to run higher on this panic-induced leg. One possible road map is that Uncle Buck surges a bit higher into the noted resistance zone as Armageddon '08 hysteria reaches a crescendo, everybody is sitting safely in cash and then a pretty strong decline begins per what I have marked up on the chart.

But there is no way you can paint, will or wish bearish on the 'price' of USD v. the other debased currencies of the world now that it has destroyed the 'decades old resistance' we had previously been watching.

The great anti-USD inflation trade is a footnote of history. Now, a great anti-fiat global currency inflation trade?... that may be a different story.

Monday, October 20, 2008

UNG daily chart

The US Natural Gas Fund is but one of many commodities (and markets) looking for the all clear on a relief rally or, perish the thought, a new bull market. Here is UNG still in the daily down trend but with ongoing bullish divergence.

Isn't it amazing how long such divergence can remain in force while prices continue to drop? Eventually they are usually fulfilled. Eventually.

Why Warren Buffett is Right (and Nobody Cares)

Most 'investors' do not want to read this because most 'investors' seem unwaveringly aligned with the old tried and true philosophy, 'buy high and sell low'. Please read this piece by John Hussman: Why Warren Buffett is Right (and Nobody Cares). Understand that the major media are on the job scaring the shit out of the public and that the former 'look at me, big time commodity and resource bull!' inflation casino patrons are now worshiping at the alter of the Deflation Godz. Hussman has simple advice, and most will not listen.

"If anything should be clear from the bubbles of recent years, the greatest risks are not when prices are depressed, the economy is weak, and investors are frightened, but rather when prices are elevated and an unendingly positive outlook for technology, or housing, or global growth, or private equity, or emerging markets, or commodities seems all but certain."

I have nothing to do with Hussman except that I own one of his funds and link to his weekly market comment every Monday morning on the News & Analysis page. In a world full of tragic investment advice and rampant misperception, he is always clear and consistent.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Fear of Lehman's CDS derivatives haunt markets

<-- Trick or Treat!? Nice mask by the way. See last few paragraphs in bold.

It is a full week after bankers gathered in New York to start sorting out the derivatives mess left by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. We still do not know who is on the hook for some $360bn of default insurance, or how much they will have to pay.

Ominous talk of big names and big sums continues to haunt global markets, thwarting efforts by the US and European authorities to unlock inter-bank lending. Traders have noted with acute interest that insurer AIG - now nationalised - says it will need another $38bn from the US government, on top of the $85bn bail-out it has already received. AIG is the world's biggest underwriter of credit protection.

Those on the wrong side of these Lehman debt contracts - known as credit default swaps (CDS) - must come up with the money by Tuesday, the next D-Day in the ever-fraught calendar of the credit markets. There has been a deafening silence so far.

There is no easy way of finding out who they are, so every bank and insurer is suspect. The $55,000bn CDS market is "completely lacking in transparency and completely unregulated" in the words of Chris Cox, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The settlement auction on Lehman CDS contracts last week was in itself a bombshell. Creditors retrieved just nine cents on the dollar from the Lehman wreckage. As Naked Capitalism put it, the bank had "vaporised". The biggest players at the auction were Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank but they were almost certainly transacting for clients.

The insurers of the debt -- a third are hedge funds -- will have to pay 91pc of the $400bn in contracts.

The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation says the risks have been exaggerated in headline scare stories, insisting that the total sum to be paid will be closer to $6bn. It says most positions are "netted out".

"That's not credible," says Andrea Cicione, credit chief at BNP Paribas.

"They keep coming up with these number by 'netting' but we think the amount is going to anywhere from $220bn to $270bn. The chain broke in the CDS market when Lehman Brothers went down. We may now see other counter-parties defaulting," he said.

With hindsight, it is now clear the decision to let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt set off a melt-down of the world financial system, forcing North America, Britain, Europe, Australia, and now parts of Asia to rescue their banks. "A dramatic error," said Christine Lagarde, France's finance minister.

US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke said this week that Washington lacked the legal power to take on the vast liabilties stemming from a Lehman rescue.

"A public-sector solution for Lehman proved infeasible, as the firm could not post sufficient collateral to provide reasonable assurance that a loan from the Federal Reserve would be repaid, and the Treasury did not have the authority to absorb billions of dollars of expected losses to facilitate Lehman's acquisition by another firm. Consequently, little could be done," he said. The new legislation passed by Congress "will give us better choices."

In truth, both Congress and the US public wanted a scalp. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had to bide his time until it was clear to almost everybody that a domino collapse of the US banking system would lead to catastrophe. The Lehman collapse did the trick.

The list of companies admitting to losses on Lehman investments reveals the global extent of the damage. Dexia held €500m of bonds, which may have caused its own need for a Franco-Belgian rescue days later.

Among the others with declared exposure: Swedbank $1.2bn; Freddie Mac $1.2bn; State Street $1bn; Allianz €400m; BNP Paribas €400m; AXA €300m; Intesa Sanpaolo €260m; Raffeissen Bank €252m; Unicredit €120m; ING €100m; Danske Bank $100m; Aviva £270m; Australia and New Zealand Bank $120m; Mistubishi $235m; China Citic Bank $76m; China Construction Bank $191m, Industrial Commercial Bank of China $152m and Bank of China $76m. Ultimately, some money may be recovered.

These losses are out in the open, but the CDS shoe has yet to drop. Perversely the insured volume is greater than the $150bn total of Lehman debt. Some $400bn of CDS contracts were sold. Many were used by hedge funds to take "short" bets on the fate of the bank. The contracts nevertheless have to be honoured.

Chris Whalen, head of Institutional Risk Analytics, says this creates a huge moral dilemna. Why should taxpayers now responsible for AIG foot the bill for huge windfall transfers to hedge funds?

"We need to shut this whole thing down. The people who don't own the underlying collateral and were just betting should be flushed away. It would be grotesque if the US authorities were now to subsidize speculators. The US political class is waking up to this," he said.

If so, the winners may have more trouble than they realize collecting their prize.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Sox Win!

Look, I gave up and went to bed when they were down 5-0. The final? 8-7 Sox in a pressure packed elimination game coming back from 7 zip on a hit by J.D. Drew. A lesson in here I think.

Gold Weekly

I did a weekly chart of gold this morning that is not bullish at all and then went back and found another weekly from August (see post here) showing some downside potential in a deflation scare. That potential is in the 600's. This morning's updated view shows the chart has degenerated, plain and simple with lower highs, MACD now firmly drilled down into bear territory and important moving averages being lost. Yesterday was a technically damaging day to 'hope' for the 'price' of the metal that cares not a whit about anything other than anchoring long term value.

Aside from margin related and panic selling, the gold stocks are forecasting more downside, obviously. The problem is that gold bugs cannot conceive of such a thing happening to their precious metal, especially with global financial systems falling apart at the seams. Here are the two charts.

Edit (10:36) As if its ears were burning, out comes this video from Adam @ ino.com. I don't micro manage the POG, but if you're a trader, these guys are all about simply being right on price and trend. The video looks at gold and projects a less bearish target (700-720) than my potential. Also, they look at trading gold stocks. Good video for traders as the ino system takes the emotion out of it.

August 29:



October 16:



For convenience, here is the copy from that August post. I don't like this any more than anybody else participating in the sector and I am not even saying it was my 'favored' outcome. But please do not be surprised by it. The gurus that only see bullish 'price' may need to be washed out along with their followers.

I am currently leaning toward a fairly strong rebound in oil so therefore I am still looking for same in gold. As you know, I do not care for this situation because the plays in the oil and commodities markets do not have anything to do with the play in the gold market, at least as far as my purest big picture view is concerned. Commodities must be broken before gold's next leg up and the purest view on gold is based on economic contraction and the pressure it puts on policy makers to inflate. The contraction also conveniently takes down all kinds of asset classes (like oil) giving them the all clear to do so.

So, in some ways I will be pleased to get a final plunge over with in the precious metals. Noted commodity bull gurus are watching this long term moving average or that, proclaiming that the gold bull is still alive but if it violates this level or that it will be kaput. With current over sold levels beyond anything the bull has seen yet the stage is set for a further decline. Folks, the momo is going in that direction. Is that not what a deflation scare is? SCARY? I have read some research talking about gold finding support here in the low 800's and not likely to hit the previous target in the low 700's. I would not be so hasty on that and in fact gold has got downside to 650, which would prove deflationists EWI to be right.

If this is an A-B-C correction, gold will plunge from historically over sold to a buying op level of huge proportions. It will not be easy to buy the sector however - and most people won't because the din about deflation will be so loud and so negatively reinforcing. We will come to believe that deflation is here just as we came to believe oil was going to keep rising.

If this is an A-B-C correction it will actually be better for the big picture health of the bull market (no, I will not be among those giving up the ship) than if we rebound strongly here with oil and commodities. In my view at least, that stuff is not nearly done with its decline and as you hear me drone on and on about, the longer the correlation persists, the longer the wait is likely to be through this correction (cyclical bear market?). So in conclusion, A-B-C would be very painful and very scary here, but at least we would be getting on with it as opposed to fooling around with the commodity bull complex into the teeth of a deflationary impulse on the immediate horizon.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Deflation is a Non Sequitor

A subscriber asked me today about my thoughts on the velocity of money, gold miners' ability to make a profit at 500-600 gold and physical demand from investment vs. commercial use. My short answer is that I do not manage the price of gold other than the oft-stated if it goes down in a deflation scare, it should go down less than positively correlated commodities, hence go down less than gold miners' costs. The question is again on the table, just like in 2002 "is this a deflation scare or the real thing?"

The deflationists definitely rule the day as people are worried about newly created money just sitting there in the re-liquefied banks and not getting out to the economy. In fact, as the emailer noted "until it goes out into the economy and changes hands it is just giving banks a lifeline."

Our 62% fib retrace on the gold stocks at HUI 220 has been torn to shreds today and I don 't take this lightly. At some point the market tells you you are wrong and you respect it. Bull markets all over are ended, including the gold stocks. Deflation is now the word of the day as even EWI noted a few weeks ago that the word had still not hit a critical mass. But now, very smart people are all ears even as the Fed begins an inflation regime for real. Inflation expectations? What are those?

Ed Bugos explains the situation quite well in Deflation is a Non Sequitor. These things take time and in the nexus of panic, things are not likely to come unstuck over night. It's why we manage risk, because markets don't give a crap about what you think or think you know. Not in the short term. If this is a real deflation, we are all done. Asset owners of all kinds. Including gold stock owners. I simply don't think that will turn out to be the case, however. Your opinions may be different and I encourage that. What I do know is that unless gold tanks hugely in the face of suddenly recovering industrial commodities, the gold miners have already received a bottom line injection. It's already there.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Recommended reading - Bob Hoye

Economyths by Bob Hoye.

HUI

Unfortunately, it does indeed look like the 220 target (62% retrace of bull market) for Huey is in play. Recall that the violation of the September low brought about this target. But a target is just a target, not a prediction.

This is a weekly chart, but if you pull up a daily (you can use the stockcharts.com menu over there on the right side panel) you will see that today made a new closing low. Of course, gold was higher again but what do panicking and over leveraged players care?

Hopefully everyone understands who they are whether investor, trader, bottom feeder, risk manager, avoider or whatever. Anything but hoper. I see a headline 'Dow plunges 733 as new data points to recession' to which I would ask where were these guys months ago when a recession was all but a given? There's the media again, masters of the obvious. The play is an has been contraction/recession begets pressure on monetary authorities amid DEFLATION hysteria. Check. Meanwhile, how about gold stock fundamentals, Ehh Bueller?

Oh and yes, this is a cyclical bear market for the gold stocks. Not that that needs clarification. The trend line drawn is not meant to be some happy happy attempt to say 'bull intact'. Bull NOT intact. Bull dead, kaput, dog food. The line simply correlates with the fib level. Now, the birth of a brand new baby bull... that's what I am in this for. All this angst while those fundies keep on getting better. It doesn't get any better than that for a contrary sort.

Ron Paul

I remember when Fox laughed at Dr. Paul. I remember when dem slick boyz & girlz on Fast Money laughed at the thought of owning gold. I remember when the illusion was intact only a few short months ago.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Email glitch solved

You launch a newsletter into the jaws of tanking markets... stress runs high... subscribers are signing on... the pressure is on more than ever to remain centered, focused and on message and then? Why, your web host company's outgoing mail server gets dinged (wrongly so they say) for spam by the likes of Comcast, ATT & Hotmail. You spend way more time than you'd ever care to think about trying to get ahead of the problem. Markets are down, up, down and down some more. Stay focused but for goodness sake, GET THE GLITCH FIGURED OUT!

Today I got to the bottom of it. My ISP is Comcast and I am now using their outgoing server which should eliminate the annoying random issue where 2 or 3 subscribers did not receive their reports in a timely manner. Also, note that I am adding a new email address from which you may hear from me: gary[AT]biiwii.com to go along with info[AT] and gt[AT].

I truly appreciate your help and patience as I tried to and finally did, get this figured out.

Jeremy Grantham in Barron's

I do not by any means compare myself to Jeremy Grantham, but I found this quote interesting in his Barron's interview (as highlighted by Michael Panzner in Give 'Em Enough Rope). A 'slow motion train wreck'... that is exactly what it felt like.

I ask myself, "Why is it that several dozen people saw this crisis coming for years?" I described it as being like watching a train wreck in very slow motion. It seemed so inevitable and so merciless, and yet the bosses of Merrill Lynch and Citi and even [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Hank Paulson and [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke -- none of them seemed to see it coming.

I have a theory that people who find themselves running major-league companies are real organization-management types who focus on what they are doing this quarter or this annual budget. They are somewhat impatient, and focused on the present. Seeing these things requires more people with a historical perspective who are more thoughtful and more right-brained -- but we end up with an army of left-brained immediate doers.

So it's more or less guaranteed that every time we get an outlying, obscure event that has never happened before in history, they are always going to miss it. And the three or four-dozen-odd characters screaming about it are always going to be ignored.

If you look at the people who have been screaming about impending doom, and you added all of those several dozen people together, I don't suppose that collectively they could run a single firm without dragging it into bankruptcy in two weeks. They are just a different kind of person.

So we kept putting organization people -- people who can influence and persuade and cajole -- into top jobs that once-in-a-blue-moon take great creativity and historical insight. But they don't have those skills.

Monday, October 13, 2008

GBN

To go along with the fundamental research and weekly chart provided in NFTRH, here is a daily of GBN showing some positive divergence. At whatever point gold stocks decide to shake off the misperceptions that they are anything other than profit machines in the making, I would think the noted resistance zone would be a reasonable target for GBN.

Be aware of the lower level potential first as shown on the weekly, however. All up to HUI. Will it bottom with global markets or will it remain the Rodney Dangerfield of equity markets a while longer and head toward that 220 level? FWIW, most of my precious metals miners, including GBN are up today while the goons have some fun with the likes of GG, RGLD & KGC, the big boys in the sector.

Party on?

The dome has been built and crashed. Policy has been rammed home with the help of media hysterics. The world has signed on to the welfare of the primary abuser, Wall St. and the US financial sectors. Perhaps today is the day the policy will stick. In the speculative portfolio in NFTRH I noted that QQQQ and USO had been added (on Friday's downer) and this morning I bought the relatively sound financial system of Singapore while waiting for the silliness in the precious metals miners to run its course.

Edit (12:21)
Regarding the manip issue, the more I think of it the more I think not. In my own personal life I saw people buying GLD last week on a knee jerk response to the hard down in markets. It is a primal thing, fear. And the fear response (to buy gold) is being unwound on relief today. The CoTs are still constructive and while there may be some goonz in the gold market, dems boyz is probally not a major factor. The ancient anchor to value has had a lot of patience just sitting there holding its investment merit while all these circus acts go on around it. Silver is leading today, which implies a nice relief for many markets is in the offing. Notice how HUI spent more time going down with stocks than up with gold last week?

Manip?

This is almost enough to make me get on board with the 'they're manipulating gold!!!!' crowd. And perhaps as part of the frantic global bailout plan 'they' are to some degree. But in the short term I was more concerned about the hysterical Armageddon buyers of last week dumping en mass at the first sign of the global welfare initiative taking hold. Gold is... Bueller? An inflation barometer. Yes Bueller, gold is an inflation barometer and misperceptions about what is and is not inflation will take their time in getting sorted out.

Saville & Hussman - Recommended reading

Steve Saville shows how the Austrians would have advised handling the financial crisis - like Ron Paul said, HANDS OFF - in this article titled The Financial Crisis Will Soon Abate, But the Real Crisis Will Soon Begin. Throwing debt obligations at the problem is what created the problem, no? Well, now it has gone exponential.

Also, John Hussman - the fund manager who was bearish before bearish was cool has very interesting observations this morning as well. That domed house is more compelling the more I look at. Far be it for me to implore anyone to be bullish, but I implore you not to be part of the herd running toward slaughter simply because the media has gotten its teeth in the bit here and is lathering you up with hyper-intensity. Stupid media, always a day late, a dollar short and way too sensational.

My advice from NFTRH #2 was 'Tune out the noise and get safe' and that is still the case. But consider that beyond the acute panic phase, part of getting safe will mean investment; investment in something other than dollars, euros, yen and the other basket cases that represent the full faith and credit of these various governments. The overriding theme of NFTRH is and will be the right, hype-free combination of prudence, safety and CAPITAL APPRECIATION in ongoing inflation cycles. The media are to be used as contrary indicators first and foremost.

I like it when a guy like Hussman checks in on the same wavelength.

"Look – a few weeks ago, there was a $700 billion pile of money on the table, but the only way for Wall Street and bureaucrats to get their paws on it was to scare the public out of its collective gourd. They succeeded, but created the psychology that the U.S. was on the verge of depression if the bailout wasn't passed. Having created that psychology, the crisis took on a life of its own...

Investors will berate themselves for the panic they are now exhibiting. This, from an advisor that has adamantly argued for over a decade (with the exception of 2002-2003) that the stock market was strenuously overpriced and likely to deliver disappointing long-term returns. My impression is that investors who abandon properly diversified and carefully planned investments here, with the stock market already down by nearly half, will regret it as the emotionally panicked decision that wrecked their retirement prospects." -- Hussman

Separately, thank you all who got back to me about the email issue. It appears that things are working properly in most cases but there is something random here where a couple people's emails get through sometimes and get kicked back with a 'policy error' at other times. Very strange but I will continue to think about this and see what we can come up with before next weekend. Oh, and if there are any geeks out there - subscribers or not - who could help explain, I am all ears. And thanks. gt AT biiwii.com & info AT biiwii.com

Sunday, October 12, 2008

NFTRH email issues

Well, there have been at least 3 issues with people not receiving yesterday's reports from the email address gtATbiiwii.com. I have resent from infoATbiiwii.com and would appreciate knowing if you got your reports from one or both of these accounts. In the event you received from neither, please email me asap so we can get this resolved.

Thank you.

Notes From the Rabbit Hole #3

Phew, that was a lot of work. But it was ultimately very satisfying, in light of the week that was to be able to put out something coherent that made sense (to me, and I suspect to you dear subscribers) of historic events now in progress.

There are more subscribers than I had hoped for in the first couple weeks but I also want to build this thing to a point where it becomes a solid part of a good number of people's financial lives; one trusted touch point among all the other valuable sources we all take in (I mentioned Bob Hoye in the letter and I read everything I can by him and listen to his interviews - articles and audio posted at the News & Analysis page). I have others I like as well, like Otto (great NOBS included with issue #3 on GBN - thanks Otto), Noland, Hussman, Saville, and lately Mish. My thing is my own take, and it is best for you to take in more than just one person's opinion so you can weigh and measure your stance in ongoing fashion. After all, it is your stance.

Anyway, I wanted to post a couple charts from the letter for the blog's consideration because it is so visually striking. The Dow has now finally (we watched for this phenomenon as far back as 2004 - you guys know who you are ;-) assumed the posture of the the '3 Peaks and a Domed House'. Time frames and data points vary from George Lindsay's original model, but this is striking. FWIW, point 28 in theory declines to or very near point 10, which means the 2002 lows.


Friday, October 10, 2008

And a bad omen it was... AUY H&S top

In this post today's 5 level was noted as the target for AUY. Today? A sickening low of 5.20. Also, 220 for HUI was noted in the post, which could easily be attained with one more day of pukage. I don't currently own AUY but am going to watch it closely.

You have got to hand it to me, I picked a great week to start a newsletter; 'hey guys, let me highlight my portfolios for you and show you my performance!' But this is not a sprint as we lurch toward hyperinflation from deflation. It is a slug fest like the middle distance races I used to run in high school and let me tell you, the pain involved was immense.

Stephen Roach in Financial Times

The comment I made about hyperinflation was not made lightly. Here is Morgan Stanley's Steve Roach stating the case, imploring global authorities to give it everything they've got. And what they've got is a world full of scared citizens (and crashing prices). Inflation is the furthest thing from anyone's mind now. The bullet is in the chamber and all that is left is to cock the hammer and pull the trigger.

Time is ripe for authorities to be decisive and opt for overkill

By Stephen Roach

Published: October 9 2008 03:00 | Last updated: October 9 2008 03:00

There is no longer any middle ground. An ever-deepening crisis spells one of two things - the distinct possibility of a wrenching downturn in the global economy or an opportunity for healing and recovery. The ball is in the court of the authorities.

Yesterday's rare co-ordinated easing by the world's leading central banks was an important step in the right direction. The risk is it may not have been enough.

This crisis is so grave and so threatening that it is critical that policy err on the side of overkill - not underkill. That is true of both monetary and fiscal policy alike.

I would have preferred to have seen rate cuts of twice the magnitude that were announced yesterday - leaving no mistake as to the power of the weapons being deployed as well as the collective resolve of the stewards of the global economy.

I would also have preferred a blanket statement to have been issued by the world's leading central banks that they are collectively prepared to backstop global liquidity in the broadest sense. This endorsement should also include the cash (but not derivatives) markets of counterparty risk.

But central banks can't do the job alone. Follow-on efforts are needed. Specifically, I would also like to see a co-ordinated initiative endorsed by the world's leading fiscal authorities announced this weekend at the G-7/ IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington. Such an initiative should include a commitment to recapitalise a seriously weakened global banking system. It should also offer public sector support to mortgage holders with negative equity positions as well as propose a sweeping review of mandates for regulatory policy, monetary policy and global risk management practices.

There would be enormous benefits from such a combined monetary and fiscal fix. It would be the functional equivalent of a massive tax cut for a crisis-torn global economy. It would unclog the clogged arteries in credit markets. It would put financial institutions on sounder footing. It would provide some visibility to the bottom of the global business cycle. And it would usher in a new era of transparency, improved disclosure, improved underwriting standards and enhanced oversight. It would also provide a new focus on financial stability and greater accountability and discipline in an all-too-reckless world.

Notwithstanding my long-standing bearishness on the global economy and world financial markets, I am now actually hopeful that the world is at a critical turning point. We have gone to the edge of an abyss that few thought was ever possible. Having stared into the darkness, the authorities hopefully have a better appreciation of what is truly at stake. It is not too late. If the world now pulls together, we can avoid the Armageddon endgame.

We didn't have to come this close to disaster. Steeped in denial, policy makers around the world were operating largely in an ad hoc mindset - coping with asset and institution specific issues as they arose on a case by case basis. That may have worked in crises of the past - but not this time. The reactive and incremental approach has to be replaced by one that is proactive and powerful - in essence, deploying all of the firepower in the policy arsenal. This is definitely not a time to keep ammunition in reserve.

In the end, this is not just a crisis of markets, financial institutions, risk management and regulators. It is a crisis of leadership. The authorities who gather in Washington this weekend should be locked in a room until they come up with a true global fix for this mother of all global crises. Incrementalism and failure are not an option.

If world leaders follow such a course, there is legitimate hope for a new global healing and eventual recovery. It is premature to bank on such an optimistic outcome.

But if that turns out to be the case, the world must also be mindful of the pitfalls of any post-bubble recovery - avoiding at all costs the enduring excesses of liquidity and risk appetite that finally brought the system to its knees. There will be no second chance.

Stephen Roach is chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia

Historic



Capitulation

Well, if this was not capitulation I don't know what is. Added some non gold stock positions that I will mention in this weekend's NFTRH. Buy when others are fearful? Buy during a historic decline in markets? Yup. Now, if the world is not ending right here and now and if that's not Paulson & Bernanke buying up the futures, maybe this will stick.

Oh, and get ready for a hyperinflation issue down the road, possibly global in scope. This is unprecedented and we are truly in uncharted waters.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Recommended reading

From a very smart and patient man: The Primary Precondition of Deflation by Robert Prechter.

Err, not good

Yes I know, that was an astute call on the Dow yesterday wasn't it? As I edited into the post I was stopped out for a nice fat loss, percentage wise and thankfully not position size wise.

Well, one can only wonder if the poor Boston uber-wealthy have driven their Lexuses off the bridge into the Charles River yet. This bear is a brute created while seething in hibernation as the inflation party, the GREED party went on unabated. This is very sad.

One positive for my personal stance is that upon this souffle falling yet again, gold reversed and the miners were not caught in the pig's liquidity sucking undertow. The correlation seems to be getting weaker by the day. Also of note, the Canadian $CDNX - home of all those dot.v's - is doing relatively well after having crashed itself down to support from the 2002 time frame. I notice my holdings represented by this index are holding up well today.

Hmmm, just looking at the screen and this thing is lit up like a malfunctioning Christmas tree. Capitulation? Finally? Question is, where does the panic run out of gas?

Gold trading

This is a very well done and detailed gold video especially for those who are traders. Adam at INO shows the daily and weekly signals for gold and makes a projection of higher prices into 2010. But again, this is oriented for people who want to trade and preserve gains. Highly recommended: Is Gold Ready to Skyrocket?

Losses drive titans of finance to therapy

I am sorry, but I just had to have a laugh about this. I hope you do not think me insensitive but I think this is just funny as hell. "The uberwealthy worry, too," Ha ha ha ha ha... Come on boys and girls. Can't stand the heat? Get out of the kitchen and stop pretending you know what you're doing with other peoples' money. Edit (11:12) For perspective, Otto checks in with this.

From today's Boston Globe:

Losses drive titans of finance to therapy
By Megan Woolhouse

For years, brokers and hedge fund managers suffered from a condition known among therapists as "sudden wealth syndrome." Some even called it "affluenza."

Not anymore. With the sinking stock market and hordes of rich, angry investors, psychologists have a new diagnosis: sudden loss syndrome. And therapists are increasingly busy trying remedy the predicament.

"I have my hands full with what's going on in Boston," said psychologist Jim Grubman, who specializes in treating wealthy patients and financial advisers. Financial "advisers don't get a lot of sympathy from people right now."

Psychologists said the hard-driving world of bull markets and power lunches is suffering from a giant bout of introspection as markets tumble. Therapists across Massachusetts, and even a few flying in from California, said they are seeing more financial industry bulldogs - or their families - cope with acute feelings of loss and anxiety over market woes.

"I think we are in the midst of a period of the fastest wealth destruction that we've seen in at least two decades," said Robert Frank, author of the book "Richistan," a bestseller about how, until recently, the number of rich people in the United States has been exploding.

The market "just seems to be making everyone depressed, from the very top to the very bottom" of the major investment houses, Frank said. "The value system was all about making more [money]. Now what's the value system?"

That may be the question for 855 registered Lehman Brothers brokers doing business in Massachusetts who no longer have jobs after Lehman, one of the country's largest investment firms went bankrupt last month. Joe Gregory, the chief operating officer of Lehman Brothers, has been forced to sell several homes, according to The Wall Street Journal, and chief executive officer Dick Fuld reportedly put his prized art collection up for sale.

"When you're losing large amounts of money, it's extremely painful," Grubman said.

Grubman said he's seen a 15 percent to 20 percent surge in clients, and about half of those patients are financial industry advisers.

"Many are perfectionists, and many are feeling very bad because they're doubting themselves and their skills," Grubman said. "It's terrifying . . . I've seen them lose tens of millions of dollars over the course of the last nine months. I don't know anybody who's talking about jumping out a window, but I know several people who are wondering if they should be in business because they feel like they're in over their head."

Dennis Pearne, a clinical psychologist in Framingham, said he has also seen an uptick. Author of the book "Challenges of Wealth," which he wrote with financial planner Sharon Rich, Pearne said financial advisers are increasingly among his clients.

"The uberwealthy worry, too," Pearne said. "Hedge fund managers walk a fine line between great success and disaster anyway. That's just what they do. Naturally, they would be particularly frightened at the events of the last week," when markets continued to spiral down despite the federal government's $700 billion bailout of the financial industry.


Both Grubman and Pearne describe what they do as "wealth counseling" or "life coaching," to avoid the stigma associated with therapy. Both said they do not practice traditional psychotherapy, delving into a client's family background. Pearne said he helps his patients focus on their relationship with money.

Until recently, it was their relationship with lots of money.

The number of millionaires in the United States jumped from 3.7 million to 9 million between 1995 and 2004. Families faced choices about how to divide inheritances and whether to vacation in Switzerland or the Caribbean. Once the quest for money ends or becomes untenable, crisis ensues for many, experts said.

"It's something that I call identity dissolution, their sense of identity dissolves," Pearne said. "The primary way they defined themselves and who they were and their values - what they can and can't do in this world - disintegrates."

Could that syndrome also be called greed?

Not exactly, said Stephen Goldbart, a psychologist based in Marin County, Calif. "We have all colluded to make money way more important as a cultural value than it really is," Goldbart said. "To the men and women whose lives are all about money, this is a big wake-up call. Yes, their egos have been toppled, but that's a good thing potentially."

Many will need to relearn that they are more than what they earn, drive, and wear.

Some clients will consider a new line of work, like bartending or private consulting, during therapy, Goldbart said. Others might take up a hobby, such as pottery. And others may renew their drive to win back a lost fortune.

"I think what's scary from our standpoint is these top-level advisers have been saying, 'We'll weather this [downturn],' and they're not nervous. Now, in the last week, they're nervous," he said.

He also said not everyone in the financial industry has been devastated by the economic downfall. Many of the wealthiest advisers he treats simply want guidance handling their angry customers. And many have been extremely conservative with their personal portfolios.

"They don't do what the average American does and over leverage," he said. "Their debt ratio is nowhere near what these [failed] institution's have been. That lacks common sense."

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Want to get real funky?

How about this long term view of the Dow? Could this be the picture of an ongoing mega bull market despite two secular bears (one currently in force)? I am not trying to hand hold the bulls or instill confidence. Rather, I am just showing a chart that is devoid of all the daily alarms, sirens and frenetic calls to arms. Edit (1:06) Just bought some DIA calls out to January, when the pig was down around 200. Is this a reco? Come on, you know me by now. Edit (1:16) I also sold the GLD that was noted in the spec/investment portfolio in the NFTRH for a nice 8% to cash up and concentrate on the wildly over sold (vs. bullion) gold miners.

Separately, I have asked Otto to work up a NOBS report on a junior gold company that I currently own. I will do the TA. It should be ready for this weekend's NFTRH.

Edit (2:12) I just realized that today the Dow hit the H&S top target noted in the first chart in this post from Monday. It is obviously better to have it out of the way than have the markets turn up with this still hanging over our heads.

Edit (10/9 @ 3:00) So much for that brainstorm. DIA calls stopped out with a 38% loss on a thankfully small position. For the time being I'll go back to my priority of accumulating the gold sector for investment. But at some point this pig will bottom. Unfortunately the big climax may still lay ahead.

Time for a little truth

This is not a technical analysis chart. This is a macro chart telling a story; a decades long story of predatory policy and an entire culture that has had the critical nature and sound fiscal values bred right out of it by greed and sloth.

The Fed did not decide anything today. This chart decided for them. Think of Bernanke and his colleagues as academic bureaucrats going through their little academic motions. Think of the financial services industry as a bunch of frightened whores who are going to applaud the new inflation cycle. Think of the national seed corn level, over 16% post-Volcker, now at zero. The bag is empty.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

i Chart Geek




















From a long term risk/reward standpoint, what does this chart say to you? Edit (3:48) And once again we have the pig down 400+ and sucking the liquidity out of the precious metals sector. Meanwhile gold & silver are up. This is unfortunately the short term dynamic in a credit contraction enviro. Only positive is that it looks like the draining swamp has less pull on the miners. But 220 is quite open. Oh and volumes on the DIA, SPY & cubes are huge again; capitulation levels.

Saville - Inflation's New Upward Trend

Steve Saville is out this morning with some very valuable analysis. While the herd is running that way, toward the big ominous looking building over there, we cows in the back of the herd are quietly veering off to a secluded grazing pasture. Or something like that.

Inflation's New Upward Trend

Monday, October 6, 2008

Okay, this is the trader talking...

...as opposed to the inflation/deflation pondering, safety promoting newsletter writer. Here some thoughts:

1) I am becoming wildly bullish the gold stocks now that we are spiking toward 220. We'll let the dust settle this week and in this weekend's letter I will review why in detail.

2) I am not bearish on the stock market from this level. 'Not bearish' does not mean actively bullish however. At least not yet.

3) I have not lost my mind (I don't think).

4) I am seeing too many articles mentioning things like nuclear war, martial [thanks for the typo catch Otto] law and the like. I am not saying things do not suck hugely. I am saying good bottoms don't come about without stuff like this.

Did I mention I am becoming bullish the gold stocks? Maybe the trader bit in the post title is a misnomer because I am not planning to trade much. I think that quality gold stocks will be the buy of a lifetime shortly (and seen as such one day in the rear view mirror). I am greedy now. I am getting pummeled on what I hold and I am greedy for more. Much better to be greedy when you're in a muddy trench with bullets flying by your head than when you're king of the world.

As I always say, each individual must do what suits their comfort level. I have been ready for this and know what to do to suit my needs. In a few years this will all be seen in a different light I believe.

I will see if we can't come up with a good stock or two for next weekend's NFTRH.

Relevant weekly charts

Here are some weekly charts going back to the last time the world changed, in 2001. These big picture looks at the US stock market, Dollar and gold sector tell a story on the plunge into the jaws of deflation currently in progress. Consider these a visual to go with the NFTRH commentary from this weekend. I am personally still discerning a difference between outright deflation and deflation scare and that difference is critical to my stance which is holding core gold miners, GLD/BullionVault and relatively high cash levels, and awaiting further buying opportunities. If this is actual deflation, you want to be 100% cash and safest cash alternatives. I don't think it is. An increasingly hysterical investing community does however. Next week in NFTRH we will dial in to this dynamic. (Edit 10:21) Dow down to 9,954. Recall Fib 62% retrace per chart at 9,885. Ominously, SPX has already broken though its 62% Fib of the entire cyclical bull. This mess would be well advised to get its act together. If not, the gold miners are vulnerable to the [long] term 62% Fib of their own at 220 (HUI) as the swamp is drained. HUI clinging to its 'retest of the lows' scenario - barely.




































Friday, October 3, 2008

Buying opportunity?

The media are pumping that foolishness about the government (public) may actually be getting a 'buying opportunity' for this toxic waste. The only buying opportunity happening here is in gold which interestingly is unwinding the knee jerk fear trade as is the Dollar. The house today voted yet more inflation into the mix going forward. I am going to add GLD and/or BullionVault as funds come available to do so. This is emotional short term behavior and really pretty silly. Much to write tomorrow in the NFTRH now post Congress.

Edit (2:47) Why does it actually make sense for the USD and gold to move together or at least not be mutually exclusive? Because the go go commodity bubble, led by our friends the hedge fund jocks, was gamed. The go go 'gotta git me dem euros' trade was gamed as Europe is also proving itself a basket case. The Dollar is technically worthless (unless you find value in debt) as I have written for years. But until such unkown time when paper currencies end, its exchange rate will have nothing to do with that. As the crisis goes further on, I expect gold's 'exchange' rate vs. any given currency will be less of a factor. It is time to protect yourself and that doesn't mean diving into gold head first. Cash still works. Down the road I expect productive ventures, economies and resources to take root as nice investment vehicles along with monetary systems underpinning by honest money. But right now safety is the first job to see to and by my eye that means cash and gold. The stock market may well bottom for a big rally here. Play it if you will but just remember that word 'play' is what got us where we are today; potentially hyperfinflationary policy being panicked into the system.

New Commentary

I wrote this in an effort to reach beyond you, the dear converted (to sites like biiwii, Safehaven, FSO and other financial sites outside the MSM) and introduce more people to the dynamics at play.

The Financial Red Pill (a primer for new recruits)

Separately, I hope to have a bit more normal a day today as we await go time in Congress and as I get ready to publish the first NFTRH.

Good luck out there.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

AUY - Not a good omen

Normally I wouldn't let a hard down in the sector bother me but a hard down amid a liquidity vacuum that could turn into a panic is a different story. For many weeks I have noted the unfulfilled H&S target on AUY but figured it was not going to come to be since HUI had targeted and bounced off of its H&S induced 250's. Well, AUY could now well be on the way to 5. This might imply HUI breaking down to new lows as I recall the next downside was around 220? I am still without all my tools here but I think that was it.

I did not read opportunity into anything about today except for the opportunity to buy some GLD. I really did want to add more mining shares but I just don't like the looks of the above nor some others prime timers doing the same thing. These are leaders and while I hide out in my little fellers, their value propositions could also get a lot better before they turn up. I have gold and cash but am not in a hurry to do much until after the dust settles. We'll have a lot to discuss this weekend.

Post Script: This had to be the most frustratingly messed up day I've had in years and most of it had nothing to do with the market, which we could argue is just being the market. Oh well, tomorrow's a new day.

Quick Post

The computer at my alternate location blew up this morning. I finally got a new one up and running a few minutes ago and have just seen the grotesque happenings in the equity markets. I am not yet set up with email or an alert may have already gone out by now to subscribers if I had been able to ascertain the nature of the tankage beyond the jobs and new orders headlines I think I saw.

At this point the HUI is looking like it wants to get a test of the September lows over with. I won't say more other than I am going to look at this as an opportunity to put some cash to work PENDING any nasty info on liquidity I may or may not find. Sorry for the inconvenience but wouldn't ya just know the day you launch your computer blows? Sheesh.

ISM - A macro indicator going bad

The September ISM report is heading in a dreadful direction. I am posting the table with the details because sometimes we hear these reports in passing and do not appreciate the full weight of them. I use the word contraction often. But the actual components of the ISM show what that means in stark detail. Note the combination of still high prices and customer inventories with the severely contracting levels of most other measures of manufacturing activity.

This is the kind of data that will pressure the Fed to drop rates as they don't want to be perceived as micro-managing the bailout of a financial sector hopped up on greed and river boat gambling. But this? This is real economy stuff. We'll have more conclusions about that in this weekend's NFTRH.

Oh, and as an aside, welcome new subscribers and thank you for putting your trust in me! I will probably have a bit of a settling in period but I am going to put the pedal down on this thing as I get it in gear.

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
SEPTEMBER 2008


Index
Series
Index
September
Series
Index
August
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 43.5 49.9 -6.4 Contracting Faster 2
New Orders 38.8 48.3 -9.5 Contracting Faster 10
Production 40.8 52.1 -11.3 Contracting From Growing 1
Employment 41.8 49.7 -7.9 Contracting Faster 2
Supplier Deliveries 52.5 50.3 +2.2 Slowing Faster 15
Inventories 43.4 49.3 -5.9 Contracting Faster 3
Customers' Inventories 53.5 54.5 -1.0 Too High Slower 2
Prices 53.5 77.0 -23.5 Increasing Slower 21
Backlog of Orders 35.0 43.5 -8.5 Contracting Faster 5
Exports 52.0 57.0 -5.0 Growing Slower 70
Imports 44.0 48.5 -4.5 Contracting Faster 8







OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 83
Manufacturing Sector Contracting Faster