"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, November 28, 2008

HUI - current status

As stated several times (can't remember whether it was here or in NFTRH or both), I am bullish. What made me so? Ongoing bullish divergence in many markets, deplorable sentiment and unsustainable hockey sticks (US Dollar, gold-silver, gold-gyx, gold-oil ratios). What has also contributed is the bipolar media, scaring the public 24/7 with the gory (and very real) details. The media is 'on the job', masters of the obvious after it is too late to effectively prepare and just in time to spur a lot of emotional mistakes. I suspect that emotional mistakes were made the world over in October and especially November, when rational market watchers should have been on 'retest' alert.

An important distinction; While I now own things like oil, a Canadian Royalty Trust, and Asian stock fund and a favorite stock from the good old bull days that has been hammered back down to a reasonable valuation, I personally believe this is just a cycle of bullishness created by unsustainable bearish sentiment. I am not an investor in most things, although some pretty smart people do perceive bargains for the long term. I remain an 'investor' in only one thing; quality miners of gold. But even there I may get a little cute with some trading, but not too cute.

As such, here is the HUI once again, due for a pullback to refresh but healthy in so many ways that a pullback to 200-210 might be viewed as a nice buying op (although we cannot rule out a mere retest of the 225 visual support) by like-minded investors or traders. Of course, most of the world is sidelines worshipping their cash just like they are supposed to be.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

KGC - another nice bottom pattern

My gold miner holdings are dominated by what I believe are quality young producers, generating or soon to generate cash flow. But the bigger producers demand a share of capital as well. I don't own KGC, but am watching it now closely.

Inverted head and shoulders, flirting with a break of the neck line, RSI and MACD healthy and now AROON daily trend w/ confirming Wm%R. I am basically locked and loaded, but as I look for a few new opportunities, this is the type of thing I like to see.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Gold - Yearly chart

Once again I find a little bit of peace in the yearly chart which tunes out the hysterical day to day noise. There are horns blowing, leaders yelling 'CHARGE!' while others whimper 'retreat'. The vast and pliable herd whipsaws this way (inflation hysterics of just this past summer) and that (deflation hysterics currently in progress) and sometimes we forget how long certain things take to play out. Time... what a concept.

In our little corner we will stick to the 'gold may decline in a deflation impulse but will do so much less than stuff that is positively correlated to economies and human hopes for prosperity' line.

Yes, I know there is a typo on the chart and I am not pleased about it but I am also too lazy to go do it again.

Edit (3:19) Then there is this bit of genius regarding some more funny munny the Fed is coughing up, this time committing to sop up all those bad mortgages and while they're at it here's a couple hundred billion for tapped out consumers to get off the hook too. Meanwhile, the gold chart plods along. It's got time.

Some, however, are worried the mounting costs of the measures, which have the potential to reach several trillion dollars, could eventually fuel a troubling inflation.

"It may mean (a) longer-run issue with inflation and inflation concerns," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. "It may be too much of a good thing is a bad thing. We may be overpaying for bad assets."

Policy-makers, however, have signaled a willingness to do whatever it takes to try to tamp down the risk of a severe recession.

Gigi - She my fine fine lady...

Yes I know, I need to get out more. When your TA guy starts ogling his charts in a lurid and suggestive manner...

Well, the question now is, is that all there is? Folks are mighty punch drunk about this sector and indeed the entire world of stocks. Every time you get a hopeful spike higher it is dragged back down by the margin man, redeemers and flat out 'sissies'.

But this time Uncle Buck looks like he's losing this excuse for a fundamental underpinning (forced liquidators) and the bearish MACD looks like it is trumping the bullish looking patterns that were being flashed. We also know that even as the buck rose the forces taking it higher also took the gold-oil and gold-industrial metals ratios higher. So we know that the gold miner fundamentals are improving. All that is needed is for the herd to stop panicking. That has been my stance and at some point these pullbacks are going to morph into something more normal.

Here is GG doing the (normal?) pullback, teasing would-be suitors with a shapely bottom [pattern] and some seductive retrace possibilties. The panel indicators are very nice. Look for Wm%R to hold around -50 while AROON holds daily uptrend. That would be key.

The cautionary caveat however would be that this sector seldom - even in good times - just calmly pulls back to logical levels. There is often some measure of violence involved.

'Press Releases & Red Flags'

Otto Rock has just put up another one of those posts on his excellent Inca Kola News that I just love; when an experienced equities analyst, who routinely VISITS mine sites and analyzes the hard data instead of the fluff gives his views on a company, I listen. Many of you know the 'resource' world is filled with wannabes, also rans, promotions and a few downright scams.

I am glad I have this well-grounded friend out there in cyber space to bounce ideas off of, and including his monthly NOBS stock research report has added great value to NFTRH. I know this because I have received value from it personally as Otto has kicked the tires of two of my favorite gold miners as they passed muster and confirmed my own views.

Anyway, I recommend this short piece on ECU Silver Mining (TSX: ECU) and I recommend keeping up with Inca Kola because you never know what nuggests of value you are going to find there.

Monday, November 24, 2008

HUI-Gold Ratio

Using the GLD proxy here during market hours. HUI-Gold ratio has crossed to a daily uptrend for the first time since June by AROON. That is a sweet looking higher low 'W', bullish divergence and throwing in old friend the Williams %R for good measure. It has crossed above -50 which is trend bullish. If the miners clear the noted resistance relative to gold, there should be an a$$ launch soon to come. Beware of a pullback, consolidation, buying opportunity (whatever you want to call it) first however. Or will the gold miners simply keep on going without pause? I doubt it but there are a lot of observers wondering that very thing.

HAVE PATIENCE!

Sunday, November 23, 2008

'...picking off the sissies' (food for thought)

Excerpted from NFTRH9, hot off the presses as of yesterday afternoon:

An email from another NFTRH subscriber who is a Wall Street long-timer and whose level of experience makes mine look silly:

Yes Gary, I spoke last night with one of the legendary street traders from the old days (pre 1990). He wants to leave Miami and work free at our shop because he has never seen a time when there is more money to be made the old fashioned way...picking off the sissies.

And then there is an unfortunate situation that someone I am close to experienced yesterday. She is selling a prime piece of property near the ocean in Maine and was in the final offer / counter-offer phase with a cash buyer and all looked good. The buyer pulled out at the last minute for reasons I paraphrase below:

I am concerned with the stock market making new lows that this is not a regular recession and we are in fact headed toward a depression. The only safe place to be right now is in cash.

Okay, everybody’s got the memo; deflationary depression it is. Well not everybody… I’ll go with the old pro’s and stick to my story that there will be recovery – borne of inflation – and there will be places to invest and places to avoid. With the entire world now expert on deflation and 1930’s history, I have got to believe we have a huge counterparty of ‘sissies’ waiting to take the other side of the trade.

I personally believe any coming stock market rebound is a trade only and things could get worse before they get better. But if I were a deflationist I would be uncomfortable with the level the major media and by extension, the public are up to speed on the concept just as I was uncomfortable with every Tom, Dick and Harry on board the inflation express.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Classic

BMO Capital Markets has downgraded Yamana (AUY) at $3.60 a share (52 week high $19.93) and Silver Wheaton (SLW) at $2.57 (52 week high $19.54). Simply amazing. AUY responds by going up 15.5% and SLW by an underwhelming 8.5% at time of this post.

Who listens to these people? I mean, some analyst actually sent out a memo to clients with valid reasons? I would imagine it contained some hysteria about global deflationary blah blah blah... This is like taking candy from a baby and one day it will be seen for what it is.

This is why you fade Gurus...

I tried top calling oil many times and as blog readers know that did not go so well. But I knew a bubble when I saw one. Optical networking had George Gilder, commodities had Jim Rodgers, profitless dot coms had whoever they had and the peak oil herd had T-Boone Pickens. This is not to say these people are not sincere. It is simply to say they are/were wrong and blindly following your guru, whomever he or she may be is not wise.

By the way, I bought some oil via USO. I think today's price is a bit more favorable for a trade.

I distinctly remember the oil guru saying "oil will never again go under $100" shortly after the price began to crack...

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

T. Boone Pickens confirmed news reports Wednesday that falling energy prices have forced him to delay plans to build a massive wind farm in western Texas.

"Things have slowed down, but, no, the (turbine) order has not been canceled," the energy investor and former oil magnate said on CNBC. He said he still expects to take delivery of the project's 2,700 turbines in 2010, as originally planned, but that their installation might be "slowed down a little bit" until wind is more competitive economically.

The Associated Press also reported Wednesday that Pickens has decided to cut spending on his multimedia renewable-energy campaign to between $40 million and $50 million from an initial budget of $60 million, due to the falling price of oil.

Pickens, chief executive of Dallas-based hedge fund BP Capital, told CNBC the firm remains entirely in cash, as it has been since July, and doesn't plan to return to equity investing anytime soon. "Patience is what we're practicing. We think it's going to get worse, and there will be better opportunities," he said. The fund is down 62% since June.

"We're in a global recession," said Pickens, who believes a bottom in oil prices is near. He had predicted a price of $150 a barrel last summer, only to see a retreat after $147. "Within a year from now, we'll be back above $100 a barrel."

Futures of light sweet crude were trading Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $56.91 a barrel, a 21-month low.

A quick note to bears... Domed House fully expressed

I just sent this chart out to subscribers in an email update along with detailed commentary about the gold sector and some buys I made yesterday. But for our purposes here let's just say that this chart has now come to point 28 of the domed house.

Look, can stocks go lower? Yup, the herd is very powerful in its frenzied fear. Am I bullish? Yup.


Thursday, November 20, 2008

Price Effects of Inflation & Deflation

The man was a laughing stock for years. The man is also a member of Mensa I believe, and I learned a lot from him. The man is having his day and his say...

Editor’s Note: On Nov. 19, 2008, the U.S. Labor Department reported a 1 percent drop in the consumer price index for October 2008. The drop marked the largest decline in 61 years, and it was the first decline in that measure in nearly a quarter of a century. The 1 percent drop was twice as large as many mainstream analysts had forecast. Such a large decline in consumer prices is forcing U.S. policymakers to rethink the possibility of deflation in America. For more on deflation, we turn to Robert Prechter, the man who literally wrote a book on how to survive it. The following article, adapted from Prechter’s book Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, will help you understand exactly what to expect from deflation.

In addition to this article, visit Elliott Wave International to download the free 8-page report, Inflation vs. Deflation. It contains details on which threat you should prepare for and steps you can take to protect your money.

By Robert Prechter, CMT

Before explaining the price effects of inflation and deflation, we must define the terms inflation, deflation, money, credit and debt.

Webster's says, "Inflation is an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods," and "Deflation is a contraction in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods."

Money is a socially accepted medium of exchange, value storage and final payment. A specified amount of that medium also serves as a unit of account.

According to its two financial definitions, credit may be summarized as a right to access money. Credit can be held by the owner of the money, in the form of a warehouse receipt for a money deposit, which today is a checking account at a bank. Credit can also be transferred by the owner or by the owner's custodial institution to a borrower in exchange for a fee or fees – called interest – as specified in a repayment contract called a bond, note, bill or just plain IOU, which is debt. In today's economy, most credit is lent, so people often use the terms "credit" and "debt" interchangeably, as money lent by one entity is simultaneously money borrowed by another.

When the volume of money and credit rises relative to the volume of goods available, the relative value of each unit of money falls, making prices for goods generally rise. When the volume of money and credit falls relative to the volume of goods available, the relative value of each unit of money rises, making prices of goods generally fall. Though many people find it difficult to do, the proper way to conceive of these changes is that the value of units of money are rising and falling, not the values of goods.

The most common misunderstanding about inflation and deflation – echoed even by some renowned economists – is the idea that inflation is rising prices and deflation is falling prices. General price changes, though, are simply effects of inflation and deflation.

The price effects of inflation can occur in goods, which most people recognize as relating to inflation, or in investment assets, which people do not generally recognize as relating to inflation. The inflation of the 1970s induced dramatic price rises in gold, silver and commodities. The inflation of the 1980s and 1990s induced dramatic price rises in stock certificates and real estate. This difference in effect is due to differences in the social psychology that accompanies inflation and disinflation, respectively.

The price effects of deflation are simpler. They tend to occur across the board, in goods and investment assets simultaneously.

…………….

For more information on deflation and inflation, including money-saving steps for protecting your wealth, download Elliott Wave International’s free 8-page report, Inflation vs. Deflation.

Robert Prechter, Certified Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

USD and its proxy indicators...

Gold-oil ratio (GOR), Gold-silver (GSR), the VIX and gold-industrial metals (not shown) are all acting as fine as the USD in the deflationary panic. GOR and Gold-GYX are like nearly invisible (to most) clues as to a new cycle of gold miner profitability, but let's look at these indicators simply for their correlation to the USD.

Are they sustainable? Is the USD sustainable? Well, in a way I hope so because a strong USD helps me buy 'cheap' oil and gasoline. It also sends gold miner product to cost input ratios ever higher. But the funny thing is that the miners are caught in the panic of a stock market that appears destined to test the 2002/2003 bottom (see Domed House which I have left on the front page of the website as a reminder because it is still active). There is a lot of noise and hysteria flying around out there. I remain extremely bullish on the gold sector, especially the fundamentally sound producers, both large and small. Short term 'price' is a product of emotion, redemption and margin.

These charts will have a lot to say about the short term negative 'price' potential of markets, ironically including the gold miners, which benefit from their upward climb. The Q4 2008 panic is clearing the way for something, whether new bull markets all around or more likely, a strong rally in most stuff and a baby bull in one counter-cyclical sector.





Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Nouriel Roubini - A new new dealer...

In this Bloomberg Video, Roubini advocates bailing out big auto, government infrastructure projects and global bailouts to the max to fight deflation. The measures that this respected economist advocates are going to create a whopper of an inflation issue one day. But officialdom and the public are no longer concerned about such details, having done a 180 in just a few short months.

All along I awaited the deflation 'impulse' or 'scare' and never did I imagine it would be quite this bad. But again I will tell you it IS scary and we DO need to protect ourselves from (and take advantage of - we heat by oil) price destruction in the heat of the event, but nothing has changed. One day the hysteria is going to be looked back upon as the opportunity of a lifetime. I am not talking about an opportunity to get rich. I am talking about an opportunity to protect oneself from ongoing, intensifying and systemic inflation.

Thanks again to Otto Rock for the Nouriel fright mask.

HUI

Okay, we are all nerve wracked here. At least those of us dumb enough to be on board this thing. :-) Here is HUI with TRIX confirming the MACD, bullish divergence and that #@%! downtrend that needs to be broken. Getting close but pardon me if I am not overconfident. I am not, and that's probably how it should be. A break of the downtrend would become much more significant with a break above the noted resistance at 225 as mentioned before.

Note to subscribers: A break (and hold) of that downtrend line would also negate the symmetrical triangle (continuation) pattern noted in last night's update. That would be a err, good thing. I would not recommend heroics until such time.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Ted Libor - We need to listen to this dude...

It is truly sad that the micro and macro managed global economy needs indicators of how much credit is successfully entering the system in order to function 'properly'. But this is the state we have come to. If (IF) we get another boom, mini boom or even pathetic recovery one day it will be because policy made it happen. But along with that policy comes implied moral hazard because ya just don't get something for nothing. The current crisis is the sad effect of the last something for nothing attempt coming apart at the seams.

So, I hate that I even have to look at things like TED, LIBOR and money supply because all they indicate is that we may get another kick at the inflationary can one day in the future and the ultimate moral hazard that is sure to come with it. That said, TED & LIBOR both continue to indicate that the acute phase of this panic is over. That does not mean 'prices' will not continue to decline in the short term because markets - carrying the hopes, dreams, nightmares and emotional actions of millions - will do what they will do. But Teddy Libor is getting himself under control.

Watch the US Dollar. As noted in NFTRH, it has a potential technical target of 92-93 based on patterns, but weakening momentum indicators that could imply it is double topping here and now. As goes Uncle Buck, so will the global anti-buck trade go inversely.

e2.10Change-0.052 % Change-2.407 High2.12Low2.10Open2.12
Value for .TEDSP:IND



What does it Mean? The price difference between three-month futures contracts for U.S. Treasuries and three-month contracts for Eurodollars having identical expiration months.

Investopedia Says... The Ted spread can be used as an indicator of credit risk. This is because U.S. T-bills are considered risk free while the rate associated with the Eurodollar futures is thought to reflect the credit ratings of corporate borrowers. As the Ted spread increases, default risk is considered to be increasing, and investors will have a preference for safe investments. As the spread decreases, the default risk is considered to be decreasing.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Looking foward...

Nobody is going to flip a switch and give the all clear when it is time to look ahead. Hey, we are too fear ridden right now to think about anything but safety from price destruction, right? Wrong. "Cash is not trash" say the refugees from the credit mania and its various manifestations in leveraged speculation, 'innovative' investment vehicles, foundation-less economies and commodity mania. "No, we LOVE our cash and we are worshiping at the alter of deflation."

Wash, rinse, repeat. NFTRH8 out now and here is its opening piece: Fast Forward.

Friday, November 14, 2008

USD, HUI & SPX

The current theme is the world vs. the Dollar. I am using HUI here because that is the major index of my investment stance, and the SPX because it is a broad US stock market proxy. But think about European, Asian and other emerging markets. Think about the Euro and some of the 'commodity currencies'. Think about the entire anti-USD trade that has been pummeled so mercilessly in this once in a lifetime bear. In the big picture I own gold miners because they are counter cyclical, but for the near term their fate rides along with the entire ship of fools.

Yesterday the entire vessel had a fear filled plunge to new intra-day lows and reversal - on volume to close above the previous day's highs. We all know this is bullish, but with the ferocity of this margin and forced liquidation stoked bear, we reserve just a kernel of doubt until the resistance levels shown on the charts are exceeded, now don't we? We also reserve some cash. I added to positions yesterday during the down, am locked and loaded for the up but not overly confident, which is how it should be during the making of a bottom.

Incidentally, regarding the HUI... it hammered at support vs. gold (bullish) and it is also relatively strong vs. the broad market in that it made a nice reversal up from support and never threatened the lows of 150.27. That is a bullish divergence for the miners vs. most other markets. Exceptions being the oil and gas stocks and a few others. Look for relative strength at the bottom as that is where the leadership of any coming rally will be.



Thursday, November 13, 2008

From this morning's NFTRH email update...


Pardon me while I do a bit of promo work here. After they age a week or two, I post the NFTRH reports over on the main website because I want you to see how the letter operated under historically difficult (and interesting) circumstances. I will also eventually post a bunch of the email updates, but here is one that subscribers got this morning. As usual, I predicted nothing, but gave some parameters that have been attained. USD symmetrical triangle was first ID'd last week before it became clear to every trader on the planet, thus reducing its potency. If indeed the buck is double topping instead, this is why we use the 'panel' indicators as confirmation of such patterns. HUI chart (not posted here) working like a charm and the broad market certainly did give a "strong thrust higher with a close above the previous day's highs" and it did it on volume. Now, dat's a reversal.

Good morning,
The two updates on 11/6/08 highlighted the status of the US Dollar, with its bullish [symmetrical] triangle (but bearish lower panel indicators), made reference to the broad market's failure to break above important short term resistance (implying a test of the lows) and gave support levels for HUI after it turned down from resistance around 227.

I have attached the same HUI chart as everything on it remains in play. The first support level failed yesterday and the index dropped to near the final support level at around 175. That has held and I personally added a very small amount to the spec portfolio at that level, but am keeping cash on hand for the possibility of more downside.

Meanwhile, the broad market is on the retest as well and this is all very normal activity. If we hold at or around the October lows and get a strong thrust higher with a close above the previous day's highs, I will become bullish. It is more comfortable being long a successful retest then catching falling knives in an initial panic. For those not fundamentally engaged, cash remains the place to be until confirmation.

I have also attached a new chart showing what could be a double top forming on the USD, but have caution. If MACD triggers up and the STO rises above 80, it will begin to look like previous targets in the low 90's are in play (see NFTRH7). If the Dollar were to put on this kind of a display short term, I would likely become quite bearish for the near and intermediate terms.

Regards,
Gary

Dollar higher, stocks & oil lower? - ino.com

In an email update last week and in NFTRH 7, I looked at the bullish symmetrical triangle (continuation pattern) in the US Dollar. In this video, Adam at ino.com sees the same thing in USD/Euro and forecasts Dollar bullish. I noted some bearish indicators like MACD and stochastics which have not yet confirmed a bullish breakout, but it is getting close. The USD either double tops or breaks out higher.

Also in the video, Adam sees a very bearish Nasdaq and oil declining further. Here are three fundamental points he makes as well:

* Number one: The trend in most all stocks is down. This trend is likely to persist and last longer than most people imagine.

* Number two: There is no plan. The government is floundering and does not have a plan that is going to work anytime soon.

* Number three: We have a lame-duck president, and nothing is going to happen of any consequence until President-elect Obama is sworn in.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

More Paulson Ponzinomics

More of the same, just targeting different aspects of the bloated and unproductive something-for-nothing scheme we have been a part of for decades. Paulson dons cape and with a '$' instead of an 'S' on his chest, takes aim at the consumer. This is what the deflation bringeth. The deflation bringeth the inflation - on a global scale - and the need for investors to correctly determine what these guys are up to. Yes, I am hiding a significant percentage of my funds in short term treasury vehicles. There will come a time when that will not be the case. These creeps are going force us to be investors in quaint old concepts like value, productivity and progress and the counterparty to those trades is being created right now by a deflationary spiral. There will come a day when savers are again destroyed. They are being destroyed right now, it's just that this has not yet come out in the market wash. Wash, rinse, repeat after all.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Gold ratios monthy (big picture)

Even as HUI remains subject to the aftershocks of October and the herd's perceptions are focused on anything but distinguishing the gold stocks as a unique cyclical asset class in a contraction, we see the miners' product making a significant 'big picture' move up vs. oil. Monthly MACD and stochastics are healthy and long term trend by AROON has turned up. In the lower panels we see gold's performance vs. industrial metals and the S&P500.

I cannot micro manage the disturbing things going on in the political, economic and financial big pictures. I will not yell at you "THE WORLD IS ENDING - GO BUY GOLD!!!" I will simply keep on trading and/or investing as long as the lights are on and try to preserve capital and make profits. As such, I remain focused on these ratios and the gold miners. This is the Hoye model and that dood has studied history. All the misperceptions flying around the media right now are simply noise. There is nothing really new under the sun. By the way, Mr. Hoye's Pivotal Events excerpt (published) and Howe Street radio interview (linked) are found here weekly. I never miss either.

In the simplest sense, gold miners are companies. Those of interest here are public companies. The stocks of these companies are punished for operational underperformance and rewarded for operational achievement. The ratios represent the companies' product measured in their operational costs. The product has attained major outperformance vs. the costs. Bottom lines stand to gain while most everything else (of positive economic correlation) remains under pressure. Last I checked, the stock market rewards performance - eventually.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Huey stuck in market quicksand

As the broad stock market eases deeper into the quicksand, slowly pulled back down with each hope-filled thrust upward, the same happens to the HUI and gold stocks. The gold bugs are attempting to be lifted up and out by the same hand of hope that keeps losing its grip. This is what a re-test is; the crushing of hope for the final survivors of October's decimation.

The chart shows Huey's correlation with the S&500 quite well. I believe that the broad market is bottoming however so what's the problem? Well, no real problem other than my stance for real gains in the gold miners is based on their counter-cyclicality. It is fine if they rally and perhaps even lead when all markets bottom out. But the true test of the miner stance will come after any coming major hope rally peters itself out.

Notice on the chart I have shown Trixy in the lower panel. It has been a long while since I have been able to use this slower indicator, but when it triggers up like this, it can be a nice confirmation to MACD. This does not preclude a test of the lows to levels shown on last week's email update however.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Very troubling part of the 'New Normalcy'

I found this linked over at 321gold and it is indeed frightening. The democrats are discussing confiscation of peoples' retirement accounts. This is being couched as for the benefit of the American people as it will provide "much needed oversight" to their retirement accounts. The solution? Convert them to universal Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRA's) managed by... get this, the Social Security Administration. Folks, if you are still sitting on your ass in the old world, you'd better get moving into the new one right this minute. The Social Security Administration? Is that the same outfit that is so well managed that people of my age are virtually 'guaranteed' nothing of value being in the pot by the time we retire after a lifetime of working and paying in? Dat da same outfit?

Let's see... oh the possibilities. Here's one; how about the government takes over our private accounts for our own good - benevolent big brother that it is - and for our own good puts us en mass into US Treasuries, especially those highly valued long-dated ones. Mmmmm, thanks bro!! You protect me for my own good and I get to help bail out your effin' macro mess buy buying your debt. Mmmmm, good. Wonder if all the boyz who parachuted with millions will be called back to do their part?

Oh and gold bugs? You could be next, except that it won't be couched as being for your own good. You'll likely be demonized as hoarders during national crisis. One might review the idea of owning yellow stuff in the US.

Okay, one would like to think this is so outrageous that it must simply be some blogger going into hysterics first and coldly thinking about it second. That may be so. But I have been aware of this scenario for four plus years since my 'guru' first proposed it to me. He in fact demanded I liquidate IRA's, "pay the #@%!'n taxes" and be done with it. I have indeed partially undertaken this tact and now, will consider going all the way. It worked out well because the liquidated funds were used for something of great value to us in our private lives and it was done before the market meltdown, which allowed us to keep most of our gains from the inflation bull (2003-2007 RIP).

I often advocate owning treasuries, but I only talk about bills or short term bonds and even then it is never an investment. Just short term safe cash equivalents. Just to be clear, I wouldn't touch a long term government bond even if I was wearing a radioactivity rated hazmat suit.

Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts

Democratic leaders in the U.S. House discuss confiscating 401(k)s, IRAs

By Karen McMahan

November 04, 2008

RALEIGH — Democrats in the U.S. House have been conducting hearings on proposals to confiscate workers’ personal retirement accounts — including 401(k)s and IRAs — and convert them to accounts managed by the Social Security Administration.

Triggered by the financial crisis the past two months, the hearings reportedly were meant to stem losses incurred by many workers and retirees whose 401(k) and IRA balances have been shrinking rapidly.

The testimony of Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economic policy analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York, in hearings Oct. 7 drew the most attention and criticism. Testifying for the House Committee on Education and Labor, Ghilarducci proposed that the government eliminate tax breaks for 401(k) and similar retirement accounts, such as IRAs, and confiscate workers’ retirement plan accounts and convert them to universal Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRAs) managed by the Social Security Administration.

Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Committee on Education and Labor, in prepared remarks for the hearing on “The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Workers’ Retirement Security,” blamed Wall Street for the financial crisis and said his committee will “strengthen and protect Americans’ 401(k)s, pensions, and other retirement plans” and the “Democratic Congress will continue to conduct this much-needed oversight on behalf of the American people.”

Currently, 401(k) plans allow Americans to invest pretax money and their employers match up to a defined percentage, which not only increases workers’ retirement savings but also reduces their annual income tax. The balances are fully inheritable, subject to income tax, meaning workers pass on their wealth to their heirs, unlike Social Security. Even when they leave an employer and go to one that doesn’t offer a 401(k) or pension, workers can transfer their balances to a qualified IRA.

Mandating Equality

Ghilarducci’s plan first appeared in a paper for the Economic Policy Institute: Agenda for Shared Prosperity on Nov. 20, 2007, in which she said GRAs will rescue the flawed American retirement income system (www.sharedprosperity.org/bp204/bp204.pdf).

The current retirement system, Ghilarducci said, “exacerbates income and wealth inequalities” because tax breaks for voluntary retirement accounts are “skewed to the wealthy because it is easier for them to save, and because they receive bigger tax breaks when they do.”

Lauding GRAs as a way to effectively increase retirement savings, Ghilarducci wrote that savings incentives are unequal for rich and poor families because tax deferrals “provide a much larger ‘carrot’ to wealthy families than to middle-class families — and none whatsoever for families too poor to owe taxes.”

GRAs would guarantee a fixed 3 percent annual rate of return, although later in her article Ghilarducci explained that participants would not “earn a 3% real return in perpetuity.” In place of tax breaks workers now receive for contributions and thus a lower tax rate, workers would receive $600 annually from the government, inflation-adjusted. For low-income workers whose annual contributions are less than $600, the government would deposit whatever amount it would take to equal the minimum $600 for all participants.

In a radio interview with Kirby Wilbur in Seattle on Oct. 27, 2008, Ghilarducci explained that her proposal doesn’t eliminate the tax breaks, rather, “I’m just rearranging the tax breaks that are available now for 401(k)s and spreading — spreading the wealth.”

All workers would have 5 percent of their annual pay deducted from their paychecks and deposited to the GRA. They would still be paying Social Security and Medicare taxes, as would the employers. The GRA contribution would be shared equally by the worker and the employee. Employers no longer would be able to write off their contributions. Any capital gains would be taxable year-on-year.

Analysts point to another disturbing part of the plan. With a GRA, workers could bequeath only half of their account balances to their heirs, unlike full balances from existing 401(k) and IRA accounts. For workers who die after retiring, they could bequeath just their own contributions plus the interest but minus any benefits received and minus the employer contributions.

Another justification for Ghilarducci’s plan is to eliminate investment risk. In her testimony, Ghilarducci said, “humans often lack the foresight, discipline, and investing skills required to sustain a savings plan.” She cited the 2004 HSBC global survey on the Future of Retirement, in which she claimed that “a third of Americans wanted the government to force them to save more for retirement.”

What the survey actually reported was that 33 percent of Americans wanted the government to “enforce additional private savings,” a vastly different meaning than mandatory government-run savings. Of the four potential sources of retirement support, which were government, employer, family, and self, the majority of Americans said “self” was the most important contributor, followed by “government.” When broken out by family income, low-income U.S. households said the “government” was the most important retirement support, whereas high-income families ranked “government” last and “self” first (www.hsbc.com/retirement).

On Oct. 22, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Argentinean government had seized all private pension and retirement accounts to fund government programs and to address a ballooning deficit. Fearing an economic collapse, foreign investors quickly pulled out, forcing the Argentinean stock market to shut down several times. More than 10 years ago, nationalization of private savings sent Argentina’s economy into a long-term downward spiral.

Income and Wealth Redistribution

The majority of witness testimony during recent hearings before the House Committee on Education and Labor showed that congressional Democrats intend to address income and wealth inequality through redistribution.

On July 31, 2008, Robert Greenstein, executive director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, testified before the subcommittee on workforce protections that “from the standpoint of equal treatment of people with different incomes, there is a fundamental flaw” in tax code incentives because they are “provided in the form of deductions, exemptions, and exclusions rather than in the form of refundable tax credits.”

Even people who don’t pay taxes should get money from the government, paid for by higher-income Americans, he said. “There is no obvious reason why lower-income taxpayers or people who do not file income taxes should get smaller incentives (or no tax incentives at all),” Greenstein said.

“Moving to refundable tax credits for promoting socially worthwhile activities would be an important step toward enhancing progressivity in the tax code in a way that would improve economic efficiency and performance at the same time,” Greenstein said, and “reducing barriers to labor organizing, preserving the real value of the minimum wage, and the other workforce security concerns . . . would contribute to an economy with less glaring and sharply widening inequality.”

When asked whether committee members seriously were considering Ghilarducci’s proposal for GSAs, Aaron Albright, press secretary for the Committee on Education and Labor, said Miller and other members were listening to all ideas.

Miller’s biggest priority has been on legislation aimed at greater transparency in 401(k)s and other retirement plan administration, specifically regarding fees, Albright said, and he sent a link to a Fox News interview of Miller on Oct. 24, 2008, to show that the congressman had not made a decision.

After repeated questions asked by Neil Cavuto of Fox News, Miller said he would not be in favor of “killing the 401(k)” or of “killing the tax advantages for 401(k)s.”

Arguing against liberal prescriptions, William Beach, director of the Center for Data Analysis at the Heritage Foundation, testified on Oct. 24 that the “roots of the current crisis are firmly planted in public policy mistakes” by the Federal Reserve and Congress. He cautioned Congress against raising taxes, increasing burdensome regulations, or withdrawing from international product or capital markets. “Congress can ill afford to repeat the awesome errors of its predecessor in the early days of the Great Depression,” Beach said.

Instead, Beach said, Congress could best address the financial crisis by making the tax reductions of 2001 and 2003 permanent, stopping dependence on demand-side stimulus, lowering the corporate profits tax, and reducing or eliminating taxes on capital gains and dividends.

Testifying before the same committee in early October, Jerry Bramlett, president and CEO of BenefitStreet, Inc., an independent 401(k) plan administrator, said one of the best ways to ensure retirement security would be to have the U.S. Department of Labor develop educational materials for workers so they could make better investment decisions, not exchange equity investments in retirement accounts for Treasury bills, as proposed in the GSAs.

Should Sen. Barack Obama win the presidency, congressional Democrats might have stronger support for their “spreading the wealth” agenda. On Oct. 27, the American Thinker posted a video of an interview with Obama on public radio station WBEZ-FM from 2001.

In the interview, Obama said, “The Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth, and of more basic issues such as political and economic justice in society.” The Constitution says only what “the states can’t do to you. Says what the Federal government can’t do to you,” and Obama added that the Warren Court wasn’t that radical.

Although in 2001 Obama said he was not “optimistic about bringing major redistributive change through the courts,” as president, he would likely have the opportunity to appoint one or more Supreme Court justices.

“The real tragedy of the civil rights movement was, um, because the civil rights movement became so court focused that I think there was a tendency to lose track of the political and community organizing and activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalition of powers through which you bring about redistributive change,” Obama said.

Karen McMahan is a contributing editor of Carolina Journal.

Friday, November 7, 2008

FYI on NFTRH

I know many readers would prefer to come to the blog, review what is here for free and move along on their daily rounds. That's cool. But the promotional effort for NFTRH must go on and as such I want to call your attention to something being added to the NFTRH Subscription page.

In the upper left cell a little blurb will appear weekly to give a tickler about the content of the letter. For example, this week we are going to look at the would-be transition from deflation fear to inflationary reality along with the USD's (extremely interesting) technical status and a NOBS research report on Jaguar Mining (JAG), one of my preferred junior gold producers.

I believe that the acute phase of panic is ending but mis-perceptions are still rampant (as an example, there remain too many Dollar bears) and the process of washing out hope, even among the gold stock holders, will be a grind.

Have a nice weekend.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

LIBOR - Anybody watching?

Well, here is another creeping bullish divergence that the emotional herds simply do not want to pay attention to. It will be interesting to check the Fed numbers on money supply this weekend as well, but we know what direction they have been heading in now don't we?

There are experts on deflation cropping up everywhere and suddenly everybody knows who Nouriel Roubini is. Meanwhile, the banks are easing their stance and global forces pump to beat the band. We will not exit the deflation fear stage easily or without aftershocks, but everything is falling into place for the next inflation cycle.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Gold to $300?

In doing a little browsing I stumbled upon Carl Swenlin, a noted technical analyst whose articles are sometimes linked at Biiwii.com. Mr. Swenlin sees the potential for gold going to $300 per oz. in Chasing Gold. He cites many analysts recommending gold in the October liquidity crisis. That never happened here in 'if gold declines in a deflation impulse it will do so less than positively correlated commodities' land. There was no denying that the people buying at $900 an oz. in knee jerk fashion as an emotional fear response were destined to get croaked.

Mr. Swenlin writes near the end of the article that after not predicting deflation "I was not thinking clearly (at all?)" and I will take that as yet another sign of how pervasive the deflation mindset has become. This does not mean we will have a quick exit from the deflating fear, but it certainly is a prerequisite to the next round of more severe inflation. Meanwhile, gold has still not hit my target zone of 600-650, and my own chart is not bullish either. Especially since we just had our first monthly close below the EMA 18.

Peter Marrone said it...

...and we have been expecting it. From Yamana's Q3 release:

"Finally, the quarter just ended represents, in our view, the high water mark for costs in our industry and improvements in costs should begin to show as this year comes to an end," Mr. Marrone continued. "We are beginning to see significant decline in the cost of fuel, with oil at current levels, consumables and other products. The appreciation of the United States Dollar against local currencies, particularly the currencies in Brazil (approximately 26 per cent from the third quarter) and Chile (up 30 per cent from the third quarter), should further assist our cost structure."

Change

I have to say Boston Globe columnist Jeff Jacoby sums up my thoughts here, save for the Palin (I dislike her) and the Reaganite (he was not a real conservative) bits. Being from Massachussetts, I agree with the other stuff. It is like living in the movie Groundhog Day. Same thing every election. As a human being, I also agree with the last paragraph. By the way, I wrote in the congressman from Texas -- again.

Neither major candidate has a clue about economics, but at least Mr. Obama has hung around with Paul Volcker and may surround himself with competent people. In fact, why don't we start a viral internet campaign to try to get David Walker into the new administration?

TO BE a conservative in Massachusetts is to know disappointment, never more so than on Election Day, when candidates and causes of the right rarely stand a chance. Waiting in line at my Brookline polling place yesterday, I was under no illusion that my vote would change the outcome: Barney Frank would be reelected to the US House, John Kerry would go back to the Senate, and Massachusetts would vote decisively for Barack Obama.

But even for a red voter in the bluest of states, Election 2008 has its consolations:

The Clintons really won't be going back to the White House.

We haven't seen the last of Sarah Palin, who demonstrated star power as she withstood with aplomb and good humor a vicious assault from the left.

Government financing of political campaigns, always a dreadful idea, is dead. Yes, Obama egregiously broke his solemn promise to accept public financing and its attendant spending limits. But having witnessed Obama's astonishing financial blowout - he raised well over $600 million - no future candidate will agree to be shackled by those limits.

A turn in the wilderness will do Republicans good. During the GOP's years in power, the onetime party of fiscal sobriety and limited government turned into a gang of reckless spenders and government aggrandizers. Perhaps a few years in exile will lead Republicans back to their conservative, Reaganite roots.

But the most lustrous silver lining of all is the racial one. As a politician and policymaker, Obama distresses me; his extreme liberalism is not what the nation needs. But as a symbol - a son of Africa elected to lead a majority-white nation that once enslaved Africans and treated their descendants with great cruelty - Obama's rise makes me proud of my country. The anthem of the Civil Rights Movement was "We Shall Overcome." Impossible as it might have seemed scant decades ago, we have.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

This is why we watch macro indicators


From that first little "glimmer of hope" indicated by the LIBOR chart posted in NFTRH4 right on through to NFTRH6's look at the gold-silver ratio and VIX charts this past weekend, it is evident why we need to watch these macro indicators when looking for turns in events.

Here are the 'anxiety' indicators, looking very similar as noted in NFTRH6. MACD double topped and turning down was a clue as to trend change coming. And as if by magic, most markets (other than USD) have launched in response.

I will have NFTRH5 available on the subscribe page soon and eventually, NFTRH6 as well because I feel it is important for readers evaluate the letter under the most extreme circumstances. We all look good when things are going well, don't we?

US Money Base: Hyper Inflation Ahead? - Ash

Not only do I use BullionVault. Not only do I publish Adrian Ash's commentary at the website. I also happen to be in alignment with his view of the inflation-deflation debate. Recommended reading... US Base Money: Hyper Inflation Ahead?. You can see by my 'capital preservation' portfolio in NFTRH that I have respected the deflation argument to a significant degree, especially given the damage the deflation impluse can do. But again, the biggest picture is one of deflation as a lever and each time the lever gets pulled, the monetary moral hazard increases.

Deflation as properly defined means a shrinking money supply. Inflation is its opposite. The one tends to create falling prices (and thus encourage bankruptcy and job losses) while the other is always and everywhere followed by a rise in the cost of living (but without stronger business necessarily hiring new staff).

So place your bets now. Because whether you're a gambler or not, the Fed's massive monetary inflation – both in loans to banks and brokers, as well as in notes and coins – is going to force your hand.

HUI daily technical status

Well, each day post panic I remember more of why we are here, and that is to try to understand the course of sometimes irrational markets in the big picture as well as in the short term. During the panic liquidation of October, setting support levels in most markets - and setting resistance levels in USD proved futile. Money pressing buttons in desperation does not care about some silly chart guy's lines.

Come November, we note a distinct flattening out of emotion and in fact the Wall Street machine and its propaganda arm, the major financial media are beginning to promote the bargains out there. In the big picture I tend to agree with the pitch men; one day the October levels will look like a bargain. But this is subject to the economy which is decelerating alarmingly (per yesterday's ISM data) as are most corporations' businesses. We are still at the point where it is not yet conclusive that the grand wizard's funny munny operations will even take (deflationists coming out of the woodwork).

Which brings us to the only sector I am bullish on in the contraction; the gold miners. Once again (as there always seems to be confusion on this) I am not necessarily bullish on the 'price' of gold. Nor do I need to be. All I need is to be bullish on the price of gold measured in gold mining cost inputs to be bullish on the gold miner sector. Dig? Ironically, it would probably take a rally in positively correlated commodities (esp. silver outperforming gold) to rally the gold miners. Misperceptions and all.

This chart of HUI, with all its potential retrace levels and other busy stuff going on, has had one major bullish divergence throughout the panic of October and in fact all the way back to July; the gold-oil ratio (along with other cost input ratios) has been fueling near future gold mining bottom lines even as nominal stock prices have simply been obliterated. I have shown some logical retrace levels and near term resistance, but while I have done a bit of trading off the [current] bottom, I remain fundamentally engaged and holding more than a core. I love that nearly invisible bullish divergence in what should be among the first movers in any new inflation cycle.

Monday, November 3, 2008

ISM - A disaster

A few NFTRH's ago September's ISM chart was published along with a comment that it will probably show further deterioration for October. Well, check. A dismal reading of 38%. Interestingly, they see "inflationary pressures dissolving" but of course we know they are talking about prices, not inflation. Inflationary pressures, in the purest sense are increasing as officialdom attempts to combat the declines in price. Here is more info from the report along with the data:

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in October for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy concluded 83 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI indicates a significantly faster rate of decline in manufacturing when comparing October to September. It appears that manufacturing is experiencing significant demand destruction as a result of recent events, with members indicating challenges associated with the financial crisis, interruptions from the Gulf hurricane, and the lagging impact from higher oil prices. This is the lowest level for the PMI since September 1982 when it registered 38.8 percent. In this report, we see inflationary pressures dissolving as the Prices Index fell to 37 percent, the lowest since December 2001 when it registered 33.2 percent. Export orders also contracted for the first time following 70 months of growth."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

The two industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The industries reporting contraction in October are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances, & Components; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Credit market causing suppliers to run closer on terms." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Appear to be bouncing along the bottom — volume is good but pricing is tough." (Primary Metals)
  • "Although the volume was down compared to last month, the volume was still higher than last year at the same time." (Chemical Products)
  • "Hurricane in Houston disrupted production for 10 days at our plant." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Delivery issues continue across our range of purchased commodities as suppliers trim inventory commitments." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
OCTOBER 2008


Index
Series
Index
October
Series
Index
September
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 38.9 43.5 -4.6 Contracting Faster 3
New Orders 32.2 38.8 -6.6 Contracting Faster 11
Production 34.1 40.8 -6.7 Contracting Faster 2
Employment 34.6 41.8 -7.2 Contracting Faster 3
Supplier Deliveries 49.2 52.5 -3.3 Faster From Slowing 1
Inventories 44.3 43.4 +0.9 Contracting Slower 4
Customers' Inventories 55.0 53.5 +1.5 Too High Faster 3
Prices 37.0 53.5 -16.5 Decreasing From Increasing 1
Backlog of Orders 29.5 35.0 -5.5 Contracting Faster 6
Exports 41.0 52.0 -11.0 Contracting From Growing 1
Imports 41.0 44.0 -3.0 Contracting Faster 9







OVERALL ECONOMY Contracting From Growing 1
Manufacturing Sector Contracting Faster 3

Armageddon '08 Concluding?

Excerpted from Saturday's NFTRH: Armageddon '08 Concluding?

This is by no means suggesting we are out of the woods on all fronts. Rather, the suggestion is that the acute phase of the panic is ending and things can begin to function a bit more normally now that the extreme liquidation pressure appears to be easing.