There is a technical case to be made that the stock market has significantly higher to go before it poops out. It would have been healthier to get a 'B' style decline into a 'C' rise, but such is life. The market has the potential to go out in a blaze of ultimately ill-fated glory. But the rally will not have the endurance it would have had if there was a proper correction by this time, in my opinion. At this point it does not seem to be in the cards.Regardless, all this speculating about the nature of the rally will be moot if the GSR does something other than just creep higher, as it has been doing. Big, sovereign elephants creeping into t-bills? GSR grinding higher? No, regardless of short term bullish potential I do not like the stock market's risk/reward ratio at this point. Nuh uh.
Nor am I overly thrilled with the gold stocks in the short term even as I hold 'em firm, and with this ratio still looking like it has a better than even chance to continue rising I don't like the risk/reward in silver stocks and thus, as a note to NFTRH subscribers, I sold the lone silver producer in NFTRH's speculative portfolio today for a chicken feed profit. Cash level in that portfolio is at 42% and looking to add more gold stocks. Patience. Will they decline to the current no brainer target or is that a little bull flag that will lead to bigger and better things near term? No matter because I am bullish for more than a play, the gold miners are counter cyclical and as was shown in NFTRH26, available here as a sample, there are long stretches when the HUI can and will follow the GSR on the counter cycle.
In short, the miners will do relatively lousy if this is a real recovery. It however, isn't. It can't be. It is born of the cold reality of post-crash sentiment and a whole lot of bad policy that already killed us once. Watch the GSR and watch those events in treasury land (and for god's sake, when Larry Summers comes on the idiot box, change the channel) with short rates declining and long rates increasing. Dat as they say, ain't good.
Long winded post done, it's off to soccer. Later.
