"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Monday, November 16, 2009

'If HUI is going to 470, Silver is going to 19'

Yes, I wrote that in NFTRH. Actually, I think it was 460 and adjusted to 470. Anyway, it is not like I am surprised. Disgusted yes, surprised? No way. I have seen this movie before.

I am not so much bearish on silver as I am on speculative excess in general. And the silver boyz can get as frothy as their evil cousins over in junk bond land, over in the stock market casino, over in the new stock frontier, China.

NFTRH is not a newsletter to accompany players riding a bubble to blow off, and that is surely what the stock market managers in the White House, the Fed, at Treasury want. Bubbles. Everybody willing to play has a shot at the big time. I however, will continue to play the game but remain the same person I have been all along, which is a boring old voice of reason. This is why I am more comfortable when things are falling apart than when they are being levered up. I am a fairly conservative, sensible type of guy and most definitely not a player.

I guess it is time to actually consider whether these creeps have the power to devalue the dollar right here in the light of day, to the benefit of speculators far and wide. Then again, the previous sentence may have rung the sweet sound of capitulation to those with tuned ears.

I have gotten rid of most bearish positions in a conservative account and still hold them - including silver short ZSL, in a speculation account but have also added some positions in silver and gold/silver stocks to weigh a little more bullish from market neutral. Portfolios are at all time highs and I will not become a bitter or tired looking bear (Isn't that little fella cute in the previous post? He's just resting up for an active future).

I can't tell you what my stance will be at the end of day, or the end of the week for that matter. But I can tell you, as a trader, that this pig will not beat me. If adjustments need to be made, they will be made and I will then outperform the greedy mess all the way up until termination, while having risk management in place every step of the way. It's what I did starting in 2003.

The Dow-Gold ratio has been crashing since 2000, it's all one needs to know. NFTRH has its targets and it has its A, B & C scenarios. They are trying to go for C, and it will likely not end well when it does ultimately end.