"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, November 27, 2009

A looong way from bear hubris...

That is the scary part here. The bears can celebrate as they finally stomp on the greedy and naive bulls - whose debt fueled construct is coming apart once again - and regardless of how this gets spun, the credit contraction has not ended and there should be a lot more expressions of bravado and hubris by bearish people going forward.

In NFTRH we have been following for months the low quality of investors who have been sucking on this rally. Sometimes it takes an event to trigger the dominoes. Is Dubai World (really, is that the silliest name you have ever heard?) the trigger? Don't know.

But the entire rally out of March was predictable due to bear/deflationist hubris on full display. When the time comes that you hear the scholarly deflationists lecturing you once again in that authoritative tone, then we can think bullish in some fashion - maybe. But right now, the dynamic sits opposite what it was a year ago and again last March. Full bull hubris should start unwinding now and I will expect to hear less of smarty pants SeekingAlpha commentators with foolish bullish rationalizations like the $IRX t-bill yield declined because hedge funds have locked in profits and gone to cash.

For crying out loud people, learn to think for yourself or the market will never be your friend. Well, not you dear reader... but those who lap up the all the convention the touts are willing to serve up.