"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

NFTRH update from Monday

It appears Huey is making a decision that will likely come hand in hand with the broad market deciding to rise to the top line of the sym-tri. Have fun, but remember it is a play. Eh, playah?

Update from Monday:

Good morning,

Today the HUI will try to negate the breakdown from the H&S we have been
following in the 60 min. time frame.

Updated chart is attached.

If this is negated, the chances of new highs are back in play. You can see
by the chart that a rise above 410 calls the H&S into question. A rise to
new highs in gold stocks would most likely come in conjunction with a rise
to new highs in the broad markets, which again, is not my favored scenario
for gold stocks as 'investments'. That is because the REAL price of gold is
not making gains. When gold outperforms everything else, then that 'real'
price adds to the sector's bottom lines. Otherwise, it is just a play in my
book. A very nice play, but what goes up together will likely go down
together eventually. Hence, as long as this condition (positive correlation
of gold stocks and broad markets) remains in force, I personally remain more
trader than investor.

Bully living dangerously, but could have one more trick up his sleeve...

NFTRH52 - Happy birthday! Get it FREE

One year old and no intentions of doing anything other than focusing ever more intently on what is important from an investment point of view in the face of still-ongoing historic market events. Go here (side panel under 'Sample Issues') and download #52 for free, check it out and see what you think. (Note: NFTRH best viewed in Adobe Acrobat Reader - Apple's Preview omits some graphics generated by my PDF software, Nitro PDF Pro).

We have run the spectrum of human sentiment during the last year and when it was time to be bullish, NFTRH did the work to support its case (including graphs of money supply, LIBOR, TED, etc.). When it is time to be risk averse (like now) or bearish, the process is flipped over and reversed.

I am an honest money advocate. I get the deeply held fundamental arguments of the bears and gold bugs. But I (and thus NFTRH) refuse to marry fundamental beliefs in support of interesting reading (admit it, reading end of the world screeds is interesting) that ultimately winds up blowing 50% holes in subscribers' accounts on the way to fulfillment of fundamental beliefs.

Markets can be effectively timed from a risk management standpoint. It makes for less dynamic reading, but risk management is the mature way to go about running your funds, no?

From NFTRH9 (November, 2008):

"Okay, everybody’s got the memo; deflationary depression it is. Well not everybody… I’ll go with the old pro’s and stick to my story that there will be recovery – born of inflation – and there will be places to invest and places to avoid. With the entire world now expert on deflation and 1930’s history, I have got to believe we have a huge counterparty of ‘sissies’ waiting to take the other side of the trade.

I personally believe any coming stock market rebound is a trade only and things could get worse before they get better. But if I were a deflationist I would be uncomfortable with the level the major media and by extension, the public are up to speed on the concept just as I was uncomfortable with every Tom, Dick and Harry on board the inflation express."

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

HGX Neckline whipsaw

How would you like to be someone with serious interest in taking an investment position in housing or someone with a vested interest in this thing breaking to the upside while the neckline keeps getting broken and then failed upon?

I was just rummaging around stockcharts.com, pulling up various things to try to get a 'feel' for the market. Then I saw this basket case.

Whipsaws like this are way too stressful. It will be interesting to see which way this finally breaks and fundamentally, I am looking down. Yeh, I know, bold call.

Note to subscribers...

HUI has come back up to the neckline we looked at on the 60 minute chart last week. As of this writing, it is right there. A break (and hold) above brings on the potential for new highs for the intermediate rally. A failure sets its sights on our downside targets, or at least a good solid test of the daily SMA 50. FYI.

Saville - The Credit Based Monetary System

What I consider to be brilliant analysis from Steve Saville: The Credit Based Monetary System.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Anyone seen Citi's double bottom?

DIB.v - The chart knew

I had no real idea why I was buying this trading stock. Well, early in the year at $.06 I knew why. It was a speculative lottery ticket.

But the retrace that took back about half the huge gains just looked like too solid and orderly a bull flag to ignore. That's the only reason I bought it back.

Then out came some news, now that the next leg is well in progress. But nobody knew anything ahead of time... nah, no way.

Edit (7:20)
I just noticed a news release stating that 2 Dia Bras miners died in an accident. It is one of those moments that lets us get some perspective. Two peoples' lives were involved in the making of that chart. Sometimes we charties can get caught up in the abstractions of lines and price targets. It is a company, with people and everything.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

NFTRH52 out now

Rather than blabbing about it here, I think I am going to make anniversary issue #52 available for free a bit later in the week, after subscribers have had time to absorb it.

Have a good Sunday.

Friday, September 25, 2009

What's up Citi? Bloomy?

...not long term interest rates, I can tell you that.

So far, not so good for the 'bond yields are going to rise' case. This is what bothers me. Why on earth would a reputable outfit like Bloomberg even publish that? Some pro TA guy for a big institution hallucinates a daily (or was it a 60 min.?) double bottom in long rates and an article is published in Bloomberg? What about the weekly (and much more significant) double bottom in the long bond fund TLT that we have been following here for many weeks now?

Certainly these guys did not scare me into even thinking of selling my TLT. But then again, I know mumbo jumbo when I read it. What about innocent folks who just want to read the financial media and get a straight scoop? Sorry pal. This is Larry land.

Hey, I could be crowing right into inflationary Armageddon on Monday. I don't think so, but I am not the type to call a victory til it's decided. But this was just irresponsible journalism. Then again, our major financial media are filled with that. It sells man. Everything's for sale. Even lousy information. Meanwhile, that candle on the TLT is about to make a weekly close above the resistance line that I drew a couple weeks ago.

Message to subscribers

I do not have access to my address book so I am posting a quick blurb here. Last night's update mentioned a couple investment grade gold stock holds and a 'maybe', which is an Australia based gold miner highly favored by fundamental man Otto. Some news came through this morning (via Otto) that he is not at all concerned about. But to me, it was just enough static to make me take the remainder of the significant profits on this one. The stock was in an account that has no tax implications, so that added to the sell case.

There are a lot of gold stocks out there that are already much lower than a week ago. The above noted stock has not yet declined. But now I don't need to worry about it.

In direct contrast to the previous post, here's Citi & Bloomberg

The things the major financial media feed the public... BTW, a gentleman from Bloomberg monitors this blog, or at least used to. Thus far I have been unable to give him anything fit to print. Wonder why? ;-)

Some readers may remember that a couple years ago I commented on an alternate blog I used to have about some TA by Goldman's technical analysts calling for a major correction in gold. They used some mumbo jumbo about fading monthly momentum and projected gold going back to 600. I wrote something like 'if gold goes to their target it will not be because of declining monthly momentum cited by these technical analysts because the monthly chart shows no such thing'. In fact, it remained bullish and we all know where gold went.

It feels slimy even comparing 30 year treasury bonds to gold, but one might at least wonder why this piece has appeared. Is it time to get the public 'all in' on the inflation trade? Is Larry too busy collecting millions on speaking engagements to give his tragic misdirection on long bonds? Basically, the major financial media are telling you that treasury bonds are unsafe. They are right too. Treasury bonds are a toxic waste dump. But I still believe that we are temporarily in a 'waste is rising' phase.

Here is a chart of my own showing some parameters. Meanwhile, for the secular trigger in the long bond, NFTRH will continue to follow the real big picture view, which has not been noted recently because I don't think it is near time for it to come into play. But it has nothing to do with foolish short term 'double bottoms' or any other noisy stuff in the media.

This article would have people jump in to the inflation trade now that things like copper and oil look like they are rolling over. Wash, rinse...

Treasury 30 Year Yields May Reach June High
: Technical Analysis

By Candice Zachariahs

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Thirty-year Treasury yields may climb to the highest since June after forming a so-called double bottom pattern, Citigroup Inc. said, citing technical charts.

Trend resistance for 30-year yields at 4.26 percent is “under threat,” Citigroup analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote yesterday in a report. Yields will likely advance toward 4.68 percent, the most since June 12, if they rise above resistance and the double-bottom “neckline” at 4.39 percent, the bank said.

“A double bottom has been formed and yields have been consolidating for the past few sessions,” Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup, and Devani wrote. “We would not be surprised to see a break to the upside soon which should result in a test of 4.68 percent.”

The 30-year note yielded 4.2 percent yesterday in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 4.50 percent security maturing in August 2039 rose 21/32, or $6.56 per $1,000 face value, to 105 3/32.

A double bottom occurs when the price or yield of a security makes two consecutive troughs of about the same depth, and indicates it may rebound. The neckline passes through the highest point of the double bottom. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 22, 2009 22:21 EDT

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Deflation case still intact

Despite the fever pitch of the inflation bulls, and despite Larry's conspicuous silence (I usually like to do the opposite of what old Larry tells the public), I continue to hold the TLT long bond fund. This is the holder of all that worthless long-term treasury garbage.

TLT, as of this writing remains okay for the trade target, providing dividend income all the while the process plays out.

More feedback...

There were a few others, including one pointing out my tendency toward self-involvement (can't say I disagree) and another that said "conceited my A$$, you ****ing rule dude." All in all, a fun day. It may not make the most sense business wise to let you see some of who I am (a sometimes very silly person) but it's a blog, it's free and readers are free to get me or not. Life's too short to have neurotic thoughts about every little detail. Here's one from Jeff to close out ME time here on the blog. Too much going on in the markets to get caught up in this.

Gary

I just had to write after reading the first subscriber post on your blog.

While you may not know enough about your subscriber base to characterize each of them, I am most decidedly not an average investor. I retired from Wall Street at 51, after having had senior positions at some very prominent firms. I sat on some very powerful trading desks- especially equity and commodity derivatives. My livelihood remains my trading.

What the post missed is that some of us don't rely upon you for trading guidance, don't rely upon you for tips, don't rely upon you for any specific actionable ANYTHING. For that we have ourselves.

I rely upon you for objectivity. A voice, not necessarily of reason, but of focus. You look upon, and highlight, things that matter. Not necessarily immediately, but at some point. And those "things" are what I should remember, but sometimes forget. No trade exists in a vacuum. No trader can either. I make mistakes. Lord knows, I was early getting in, early getting out. But, I maintain discipline throughout. And the perspective I gain from your writing - whether I agree with it or not - supports that discipline.

NFTRH - Yin & Yang

This post goes up because I think it can have some general value to readers and because well, it's my blog and the following speaks to who I am - at least as you (especially NFTRH subscribers) know me as a market watcher.

This morning I sent out an email pertaining to the HUI's short term situation, the risks involved therein and the general 'noise' level of the current broad market rally. Two responses came in that I found very interesting, because they basically take a look at the same characteristics (of mine) and come to wildly different conclusions.

I think it is important to respect both viewpoints because the newsletter is definitely not for everybody and is indeed a different market letter. That is because I am a different dude and I can only be me. And believe me, you do not all want me. I don't think I am 'conceited' but I am definitely confident in who I am as a market watcher and cannot go changing, especially now that the bullish pressure has turned the screws.

First the bad news (and I do consider it bad because this is from a thoughtful person and it bothers me that someone is paying for the service and not having expectations met). It has been a grind week after week, month after month talking about risk. Just as the popular newsletter sentiment indicator states, people are more likely to buy a newsletter with a bullish view. I can't do that right now. Just as I could not be bearish late last year and into March.

As I replied to the subscriber, if I start flapping around in the wind instead of standing for what I believe (right or wrong), then the service would be useless to everybody.

Hi Gary, I wrote the following before getting your update today and was just about to import it to my mailbox to send to you. I think it may be too harsh an assessment, but I also want you to know what I think about when I've had very little sleep:

You've started to exhibit an "above the fray" kind of attitude that is bordering on the conceited. You seem, from my perspective, to feel that to steer your subscribers to truly profit from your wisdom is somehow beneath the mission of NFTRH. If all I want is a worldview according to Gary, and to profit from said worldview is a side benefit, maybe your newsletter is for me. But, maybe then, it's also a luxury I can't afford. The updates seem to have grown sparse and the profit plays are for the simple minded masses who read your blogs, not the "smart" folk who are paid subscribers.


Your response is appreciated. I must also tell you I've been up for two days working an impossible schedule for clients I took on thinking the end of the world is at hand, so I'd better work my tail off while work is still to be had so I can give my son a least some of the stability and freedom from want, and freedom in general, my parents gave me. Sorry for the latter near run-on sentence. If I seem disturbed with you, I'm sorry. You're still cool with me. I'm just a bit tired of what's going on around me.


It might be that a bit more of an equally weighted balance of Gary's worldview with how to make some money is what I'm after. I doubt if I'm alone in that desire.


Then, as if its ears were burning the next mail came in. Again, these two gentlemen are looking at the same service and basically highlighting the same qualities. I suppose it is easy to pretend to be a contrarian, but it takes a real disturbed individual :-) to actually be contrary all the positive reinforcement out there. Running a newsletter, you are reminded of just how difficult it can be.

Gary,

It takes real honest-to-goodness courage to break from the pack and think for yourself. We are herd(ing) animals and are influenced by (large) movements of our fellow creatures. This is why the average person sells at the bottoms and buys at the tops.

The perfect example of this is that strange pull you feel when a group of people rush in one direction. You feel compelled to follow and you rationalize that feeling by saying that they must know something you don't.

When someone or something speaks or acts like it knows something (e.g. Fed or President) this presence acts to fill the vacuum created by our own doubt about what to do. This explains Cramer and his Cramericans. Some people "need" leadership to substitute for their lack of backbone. It also acts as a buffer to their embarrassment and anger if the movement turns out to be wrong. (Hey, I was just doing what I was told to do)

I appreciate that you remind us to stay aware, to clearly see that the crowd is surging and moving and we don't "need" to follow simply because we feel compelled to do so. Just because the majority are doing something doesn't mean it's correct.

JAG - Failure

Well, to close out the trade we report a failure here with a 2.5% loss after what could have been a 9 or 10% day trade. Like a heartfelt believer, I decided to hold on for a while to see what happens. This is what happens. We move on.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Dibby revisited

Recall the 190% profit on Dibby? Well, it was the result of months of sitting like a mother hen while the stock went nowhere. It was earned through a combination of patience and just sort of forgetting about it. :-)

Dia Bras was bought again at the bottom of a consolidation (flag) for a would be renewal of bullishness. Said bullishness has just returned over last few days. If the sentiment and hope rally in the markets holds up a while longer, DIB has a shot at new highs. If not...

Disclaimer: Don't buy it, please. I just enjoy illustrating the mechanics of trades sometimes.

Fed 'decision'

Edit (2:20) In other words:

Release Date: September 23, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Jaguar

JAG is 9% off of the buy point on the chart. But TA is a bunch of hocus pocus, now isn't it?

I am not in favor of the ethic that says everything is a trade; soulless, heartless and grounded in nothing. I am also not in favor of the ethic that seeks to marry its convictions, ultimately finds destruction, and then becomes ever more insane as it blames the world for all of its missteps.

Technical analysis - at least the version that I have refined 'in house' over the years - works. Case closed. But TA needs to be used along with a soul or a moral compass. If you can get the two dynamics working well together, you win. At least insofar as winning can be defined as something worthwhile within this paper casino.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Revisiting FR.to

Recall last week's day trade... well, here's the retest. I do not currently have a position, but found the chart so interesting that I may think about it once again if I firm up on the 'new leg higher' idea on HUI. We have after all, only hit the lower end of Huey's target zone.

Buying any of this stuff is for traders or long term investors only at this point. If you don't have a game plan you can stomach, it is not a recommended market.

As for the chart, this one has been live since last week and retests don't get any sweeter than this. Now will the test be successful?

JAG - A different view

JAG

Here is the live chart that was used for a quick note on JAG in NFTRH51. The chart, with its 8.50 area support level was originally drawn when the stock was well higher. Funny how these things seem to get magnetized to support and resistance levels, isn't it?

While I think JAG could eventually go lower, I poked it for a trade this morning as it has come to our initial support while at the same time HUI has nearly come to a level that NFTRH thought might provide some support.

Risk is high. I am a trader (in paper things and in gold stocks as long as they run with other paper things). You are whatever you are. Caveat emptor.

Paul Volcker in WSJ

Mr. Volcker walks a line between disciplining these children for their own good and lurching toward socialism. In this case, I agree with him. If the kids cannot be taught to stop taking the candy for their own (and everyone else's) good, then they need to have their hands slapped... repeatedly if necessary.

LOS ANGELES -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker on Wednesday said banks should operate in a much less risky fashion, including not making trading bets with their own capital, comments that could provoke intensified debates over the future of financial regulation.

Mr. Volcker, who currently is chairman of the White House's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, suggested banks should be restricted to trading on their client's behalf instead of making bets with their own money through internal units that often act like hedge funds.

"Extensive participation in the impersonal, transaction-oriented capital market does not seem to me an intrinsic part of commercial banking," he said in a speech to the Association for Corporate Growth in Los Angeles.

Mr. Volcker's comments could put him at odds with the Obama administration's proposal for new financial rules. The White House has called for more oversight of banks' operations but doesn't push such strict limits on what they do.

The activities Mr. Volcker criticized have caused banks to incur major losses in recent years. Nonetheless, proprietary trading and related activities appear to be making a comeback as markets have thawed.

Mr. Volcker said banks should be banned from "sponsoring and capitalizing" hedge funds and private-equity firms, which are largely unregulated. He also said "particularly strict supervision, with strong capital and collateral requirements, should be directed toward limiting proprietary securities and derivatives trading."

He also said collateral and leverage restrictions against the largest nonbank financial institutions "may be needed."

The comments reflect Mr. Volcker's long-held view that banks should act more in line with their traditional role and not take extremely risky gambles, which could threaten the viability of commercial banks and expose the Federal Reserve and taxpayers to large risks. Asked after his speech if his comments represent a break with the White House's proposal, he replied: "Nothing I said today should be a surprise" to the administration.

Mr. Volcker said he would appear before Congress next week to discuss his views in more detail. A Treasury Department spokesman declined to comment.

Stepping into the debate about who should be the top regulator for U.S. financial markets, Mr. Volcker said the Fed is better equipped than a "conclave" of regulators to oversee systemic risks to financial markets.

Regulating the financial system is "the natural responsibility for the Federal Reserve," he said, adding that other regulators are often "protecting their turf."

The White House has recommended giving extra power to the Fed but has run into opposition in Congress and from other regulators.

Mr. Volcker acknowledged the central bank would likely need some changes of its own to meet the new challenges. He said the Fed had "been more controversial" recently than he would have liked and had "not done things perfectly in the past."

"The Fed needs some reform internally," he said. This should include some "organizational changes" that he didn't specify.

Mr. Volcker also said there are signs that the economy is in the "early stages of recovery" but that it would take several years to reach "something approximating full employment." He also cited a risk of "some relapses along the way."

Excerpt from NFTRH51

Here is a bit of the 14 page NFTRH51, excerpted.

Stock Market Status

Sunday, September 20, 2009

NFTRH51 out now

#51... wow, has it really been that many? Next week's NFTRH52 will mark a full year of growth, refinement and just plain different market analysis. What does one do for an anniversary issue? What, maybe put it out for free? Hmmm...

Anyway, NFTRH51 continues to do what its predecessors have done, which is to not force the markets and not force viewpoints. It can be difficult not telling people what they want to hear and it can be difficult running a newsletter that does not want to be people's bull or bear hero.

So be it, hopefully NFTRH can be an anti-hero. The service that is looked back upon in hindsight and appreciated for its ethic of honesty and its penchant for not getting caught up in the milieu of the current market environment, which is dear readers, very noisy.

NFTRH51 out now. Enjoy the remainder of your weekend.

EWI Free Week - Asia Pacific & Europe

I was so busy last week I neglected to post this, but it runs through Wednesday. So join Club EWI if you have not already and go grab the analysis for free. I am about to do so myself. From EWI:

Elliott Wave International announces the beginning of its wildly popular FreeWeek event, where the doors are thrown open to some of the most popular paid services to non-subscribers for one week only.

For the first time ever, EWI is providing complete access to The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update and The European Short Term Update, but only until Sept. 23.

Markets move fast, so having an independent forecasting and near-term opportunity-spotting service on your side is more important now than ever. FreeWeek lets you see for yourself, and each day for one full week will show you clearly labeled price charts with updated analysis of all the major equity markets in the European and Asian-Pacific regions.

If you’re not taking part in EWI’s Asian-Pacific and European Short Term Update FreeWeek right now, you’re already missing the valuable opportunities your peers are getting for free, and FreeWeek only lasts from now until noon Wednesday, September 23.

Dive into EWI's FreeWeek Now!

Friday, September 18, 2009

Kudlow

Flipping through channels to get to the Sox game, I see Kudlow on a little intro teaser. Kudlow blathers on about 'the greatest rally no one noticed... and there's more!'

Then Kudlow babbles about a return of King Dollar (as usual). Who does Larry think he's kidding? You want King Dollar Larry? You can have it, but stop with the bullshit about the greatest story never told in stocks.

Yes, I am irritable again. Time to disengage and watch some baseball.

CoT - another lurch in a bad direction

Gold bugs say bad for evil short coverers. History says bad for gold bugs. Hot off the presses at GoldSeek.

Gold COT Report - Futures

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

263,329

27,682

48,532

81,382

366,043

393,243

442,257

Change from Prior Reporting Period

11,621

650

150

-3,460

10,404

8,311

11,204

Traders

205

62

55

39

53

265

152



Small Speculators





Long

Short

Open Interest




74,649

25,635

467,892




7,868

4,975

16,179




non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period


COT Gold Report - Positions as of

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Gold COT Report - Futures & Options Combined

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

273,953

18,770

129,186

133,066

439,376

536,204

587,332

Change from Prior Reporting Period

11,949

-1,247

3,285

-3,889

12,209

11,345

14,247

Traders

237

67

126

45

59

317

220



Small Speculators





Long

Short

Open Interest




85,890

34,762

622,094




8,185

5,283

19,530




non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period


COT Gold Report - Positions as of

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Silver COT Report - Futures

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

54,995

8,526

17,206

24,923

86,849

97,124

112,581

6,310

743

609

-1,252

4,273

5,667

5,625

Traders

88

34

29

34

36

139

83


Small Speculators





Long

Short

Open Interest




26,749

11,292

123,873




1,785

1,827

7,452




non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period


COT Silver Report - Positions as of

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Silver COT Report - Futures & Options Combined

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

55,646

5,178

45,324

32,097

98,990

133,066

149,491

6,742

371

2,699

-785

5,313

8,657

8,384

Traders

97

35

48

35

40

153

103


Small Speculators





Long

Short

Open Interest




31,331

14,906

164,397




2,039

2,311

10,695




non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period


COT Silver Report - Positions as of

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

US Dollar Index COT Report - Futures

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

10,435

19,557

3,002

18,862

7,443

32,299

30,002

593

3,088

817

-4,688

-7,072

-3,278

-3,167

Traders

12

46

3

10

12

25

59


Small Speculators





Long

Short

Open Interest




2,100

4,397

34,399




-476

-587

-3,754




non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period


COT Silver Report - Positions as of

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

US Dollar Index COT Report - Futures & Options Combined

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

10,350

19,641

3,324

19,302

7,576

32,976

30,540

608

3,136

789

-4,623

-7,060

-3,225

-3,135

Traders

18

49

6

11

14

32

66


Small Speculators





Long

Short

Open Interest




2,343

4,778

35,319




-450

-541

-3,676




non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period