"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, October 22, 2010

Smart/Dumb confidence...

Among the things we will look at in NFTRH107 is the all important sentiment backdrop, which has been getting unhealthy (dumb money bullishness rising while 'smart' goes the opposite way).  The indicators had not reached extremes as of the plunge earlier in the week, but they were close.

So, was that the kick off to the new down leg or will there be a thrust higher (to targets) that gets the dumb money 'all in' and ready to party?

No definitive answer here.  I will be content to let the indicators decide and the hints amplify as they come in.  My personal stance however is that I earned good returns by being contrary the popular sentiment and I will not let them be vaporized in a final burst of euphoria turned reversal.

These are the markets after all, and there is hard work to be done.  The d Boys are out there and they have a couple really scary indicators on their side stating that they will become very right after they have been summarily punished enough by the greed and euphoria trade.  So again, the question is have they yet been suitably punished?