Silver daily chart

This chart from NFTRH164 shows Ag having conclusively lost short term support today in disgusting fashion.  You recall I noted a couple or few weeks ago that a precious metals guru (remaining nameless) called this large downward channel a bullish flag with a target of the 70's?

Well, it looks like it is going to take a round trip to somewhere lower first.  There are a lot of fundamental analysts out there using charts and making them say what they want them to say.  Everybody's using charts nowadays, and that's a dangerous thing.

I am wrong in my leanings more often than I wish, but you will notice I almost never make grand pronouncements with the rare exception of those times that my contrarian risk vs. reward value meter is red lining and threatening to break out of its box.  Usually they are just leanings or favored scenarios on a risk vs. reward basis.

Any given trend or course of action is going to end up being outmoded sometime, and it is in the adjustments that we find intermediate term performance.  Long term silver may go to 70, but in the short term it is now targeting lower, with the potential down to the long standing target of 20 (assuming Bernanke lets us stew in our juices over the holidays and beyond and leaves well enough alone.  And yeh, that's a fairly big assumption, given that the SPX just closed below 1220 today.  If that gets confirmed, the heat will be turned up and the Vampire will hear the call.

Edit (5:18) Oh wait, I never mentioned the bullish flag call here.  It was actually in NFTRH164 along with the chart.

"There was some analysis going around by a prominent precious metals analyst calling the
channel noted above by the blue dotted lines a massive ‘bullish flag’, with a target of
$70/oz. I think that is getting way ahead of things. Let’s just manage the current
resistance zone, shall we? To summarize silver, a rise above 34 and a successful hold of
the moving averages gets NFTRH quite bullish from a speculator’s standpoint. Below
resistance sees NFTRH still bullish the gold sector but prepared to manage risk."

Obviously the "prepared to manage risk" part came front and center this week as my bullishness the gold stocks proved wrong, in a short term sense.  So I do what the market tells me and make this abundantly clear to NFTRH readers as well.

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