Another subscriber interaction...

Yes, of course this post is promoting my service, which I think is of high quality.  But I want blog readers to see this man's potential scenario bearing in mind that he does what I think is the most recommended thing in harvesting thoughts of many different people and distilling them into his own views.

I'll try to get an email update out to subscribers in the morning using Joe's thoughts as a centerpiece for discussion.  You see his '315' potential on HUI?  That is one 'potential' NFTRH has had open for a while now.  I am not trying to sound bearish after a tough day.  I am just saying that today notwithstanding, there is a line in the sand that will load if that target if it is triggered and as long as it remains a potential.  As for today, I actually don't think it meant all that much.  We'll see.

Hussman's "patient opportunism" has been what NFTRH has been all about lately.  My question remains is opportunity at hand with the frogs in the pot fully boiled, or are they still struggling in that pot?  I am going to let the market and the charts answer that.  But Joe makes some good points.

Gary, 

I have been a subscriber for a few months now--- I really enjoy your work and find it invaluable. I have been in the gold explorers and juniors since 2003. My other resources are Institutional Advisors, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, The McClellan Report, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman's Weekly Market Commentary and Sprott's Monthly Commentaries. I try to analyze all of them including you to arrive at a macro picture for the precious metals sector. My current personal view is that we are going to revisit $1,200-1,500 gold in the next three months and a HUI of 315-375. Once gold closes below $1,600 and the HUI is below 450, I believe the gold market will deteriorate rapidly. When it ends, it will be a better buying opportunity than the fall 2008- early 2009 peak of the financial crisis. I have never seen sentiment in the sector so low as the past 6 months and the only ingredient missing is a terrifying plunge that scares the last precious metals bulls out of their holdings. I am currently about 65% cash and waiting. John Hussman summed it up best this week in his market commentary: no asset class currently is worth the risk of investing and "patient opportunism remains essential here." Thank you again.

Regards, Joe"

***

"Joe,

I think your scenario has a good chance of coming to be.  If the HUI xxxxxxxx goes, your scenario gets loaded [HUI 315].  As you know I have been nagged by a lack of a final capitulation (BPGDM and other indicators) and have been trying to figure out if the frogs are fully boiled or not.

As for gold, if it blows the pattern and does not continue to make a right side shoulder and then if it loses the Dec. low, it will be broken.

Do you mind if I use your thoughts for subscribers and possibly the blog?  Anonymously, of course.

Regards,

Gary

PS:  The company I am keeping in your list of resources lets me know I am indeed on the right path with this venture (NFTRH) that I try to make sure is on a path of continual improvement."

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