"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Au still not getting the memo

The memo, direct from Buffett (little value, no utility), Roubini (just because he's an economic rock star who likes to wind up gold bugs on Twitter), Gartman (fretting about lower lows and lower highs, bull over) and Saxena (something about having broken below the 200 day moving average, US stocks a far better place to be) is that you need to go down you ancient relic!

The 200 day moving average thing is debatable.  Which MA is he talking about?  Must be the SMA (simple) that every charty uses.  How about the EMA (exponential)?  Au is now above the EMA 200 and has not officially lost the SMA 200.  Look how long it was below that one in December before invalidating the breakdown.

As for Buffett, we saw what kind of utility gold had in 2008 and if policy makers will just be brave enough to keep their mouths shut for a few days (ref: today's pump fest) we'd see it again.

Roubini?  Please.  Gartman... Dennis, there is no lower low and there is no bear market.  What there is is a chart still sitting in a potentially bullish pattern, consolidating out of last summer's excess momo.  Eventually maybe it will bend to your will, but it may also get to the upside target of 2050 as it remains nestled in this pattern.

I mean people, you can't just will something to be.  It will be what it will be and it does not care what you (or I) think.  Gold is in a bull market.  The reason I get irritated with the people who make predictions and try really hard to convince people of things is that I think real people get hurt by this behavior.  Same goes for the 'us against them' tradition of the gold bugs.  Real people get caught in the crossfire and that's not nice.

Screed ends here.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com

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