Richard Russell is calling "primary bear market" on a DT sell signal after going bullish into this correction and going bearish into the massive rally that ended early this spring.
The previous post shows a contrary setup in the making on the USD, which benefits from newly reformed casino patrons getting the hell out of asset markets. But sentiment is not a timer so much as it is a tool that indicates that a particular backdrop is in place that is constructive for a certain eventuality.
The VIX looks like it is merely consolidating an initial burst upward and while there was some media talk recently of the equity Put/Call ratio's upward burst, it is a tight moving average (EMA 10 shown here as a dotted line) that gives a better timing indication.
Here we see CPCE's EMA 10 may have to rise to around .90 or higher before the stock correction is terminated. This would go well with NFTRH's 'best' target on the S&P 500 in the low to mid 1200's. Judging by pre-market and renewed 'euro fears' it is looking like the last week has been nothing more than a Bear Flag, as was speculated in NFTRH189: "Warning: A daily chart shows that last week’s rise could be a Bear Flag prior to new lows."
Yesterday got me questioning that idea, but it remains in play. So the intermediate plan, with all due interim (short term) risk management remains on track.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.com/NFTRH/subscribe.htm
The previous post shows a contrary setup in the making on the USD, which benefits from newly reformed casino patrons getting the hell out of asset markets. But sentiment is not a timer so much as it is a tool that indicates that a particular backdrop is in place that is constructive for a certain eventuality.
The VIX looks like it is merely consolidating an initial burst upward and while there was some media talk recently of the equity Put/Call ratio's upward burst, it is a tight moving average (EMA 10 shown here as a dotted line) that gives a better timing indication.
Here we see CPCE's EMA 10 may have to rise to around .90 or higher before the stock correction is terminated. This would go well with NFTRH's 'best' target on the S&P 500 in the low to mid 1200's. Judging by pre-market and renewed 'euro fears' it is looking like the last week has been nothing more than a Bear Flag, as was speculated in NFTRH189: "Warning: A daily chart shows that last week’s rise could be a Bear Flag prior to new lows."
Yesterday got me questioning that idea, but it remains in play. So the intermediate plan, with all due interim (short term) risk management remains on track.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
http://www.biiwii.com/NFTRH/subscribe.htm
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