I just found this old chart that is the monthly view of the T bond (flipping the Continuum upside down), as opposed to the 30 year yield usually shown. It's a cool chart.
There is inflationist hysteria at the red dots (EMA 100) and deflationist hysteria at the green ones. Red and green dots... bracketing a noisy macro theme that lurches forward not caring about what the intellectuals who promote either case have to say when they are at their most strident.
It's all just red and green dots... and a red arrow at the most recent inflationary theater. Will a green arrow show up when the bond pings the upper boundary? Or will the d Boys be right this time?
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
There is inflationist hysteria at the red dots (EMA 100) and deflationist hysteria at the green ones. Red and green dots... bracketing a noisy macro theme that lurches forward not caring about what the intellectuals who promote either case have to say when they are at their most strident.
It's all just red and green dots... and a red arrow at the most recent inflationary theater. Will a green arrow show up when the bond pings the upper boundary? Or will the d Boys be right this time?
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com
Most important chart on Biiwii.
ReplyDeleteHey, speaking of which. Have you checked out the green dots in detail? 2008 is the Lehman collapse. 1998 seems to line up with the Russian debt default, Asian Tigers crisis, and the LTCM collapse.
I dunno what the green dots before that are.
All those seem to be liquidity-related doooms. And we're supposedly in another one now. Apparently as bad as 1998, given all the different world problems. But would you say that chart suggests we couldn't have much downside left? Or can you break out beyond that line?
But wouldn't breaking out be an even greater doom? Like, rise-of-the-machines hide-out-in-a-Montana-cabin 28-days-later type doom?
Fuck that... btw, see update that just went out a second ago.
DeleteOh shit, I remember 1993. I was just out of school and looking for a job right in the middle of a nasty recession. Well... they SAY the recession ended in 1991 but you couldn't find a job in Canada til about 1995.
ReplyDeleteHere's Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession
Read it. It'll sound familiar to you. You start with bank deregulation causing the S&L crisis, then a period of financial contagion and massive sovereign deficits. Oh, the USSR breaks up too. Skyrocketing unemployment in England, currency collapse in Finland. And so on.
SEEMS WE LIVED THROUGH IT BY THE WAY. I DON'T REMEMBER DYING.