"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Friday, June 29, 2012

Hawk to Dove, Trio of Fed Officials Says No to QE3

This was just forwarded to me and it looks like one of those articles that can be parsed and marked up with wise guy comments...

Hawk to Dove, Trio of Fed Officials Says No to QE3

A trio of Fed officials — San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser — spoke with unaccustomed unity in Santa Barbara on Thursday, summarily rejecting further easing unless the economy takes a turn for the worse.

The unity was all the more striking because the three represented the full policy spectrum at the Fed, from the dovish Williams, considered to be among the most employment-focused of Fed policymakers, to Plosser, one of the Fed's most hawkish members.

How quaint; hawk, moderate dove and dovish dove all come out with a unified message: No QE3.  Translation:  We have been scripted to feed you this pap (insert Outer Limits intro here... do not attempt to adjust the picture, we are controlling transmission...)

"Our policy is correctly calibrated," he said. "I'm not in favor of going to QE3 right now."

"I would not find QE3 a good policy choice," Plosser said, adding that a crisis in Europe or a sharp drop in inflation could trigger a change in his view, but that neither event is in his forecast.

"I'm in line with that," said Lockhart, who is considered a moderate dove. More easing is "a real option, but an option to be held in reserve for more serious circumstances than we now face," he said.

Reminds me of another classic old TV show, the 3 Stooges.

The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for more than three years, and has bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities in an unprecedented drive to spur growth and revive the economy after the worst recession in decades. The bond purchases drew criticism from politicians at home and abroad that the policies could kindle inflation.

Resulting in a really self-conscious Fed.  The people got what they wanted, a Federal Reserve that does not promote inflation.  QE3 is only likely to come when the people demand the Fed push the other side of its supposed 'dual mandate' and inflate the hell out of this thing the next time it implodes (post-election?).

Yet the recovery, especially in jobs, has been slow and economic growth has been erratic, leading the central bank to say it expects to keep rates "exceptionally low" at least through late 2014.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has kept the door open to more asset purchases, but has made it clear he does not want inflation, now near its 2-percent target, to rise much more.

Good on you Ben.  Now get the fuck off the yield curve and let's see how austere you really are with respect to inflation.   We cannot believe anything you say as long as you do not have the courage to stop painting the macro and let it show its true signals. 

The article goes on with 3 eggheads wrangling about jobs and I lost interest after that.

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