Only when Au breaks above the weekly EMA 35 (and holds it instead of being quickly reversed as it was on the break early in the year), triggers MACD and then confirms with a slower TRIX cross will gold be out of the woods technically.
That is a Descending Triangle and it is running out of room (with the bottom line being the horizontal support zone in the low 1500's. DescTri's are usually bearish, but they are also usually 'continuation' patterns as opposed to the current would-be reversal [ed: from up to down].
But there is an alternate view and that involves a decline to the high 1400's, which if held, would reinforce the pattern as being a bullish Falling Wedge, not a DescTri.
There is some bearish Descending Triangle hype out there (to go with the opposing 'gold to 3500 cause the system is falling apart!' hype).
The reality is that the relic is an anchor to honest money and it has been beaten down systematically since the panicked momo's wrecked it last summer. 'WHAT'S WRONG WITH GOLD?!?!?' scream people who do not get the concept of patience.
I happen to believe that gold first blew out from its own unhealthy sponsorship and then for some months now has been held down with the help of the Fed's manipulative policies in Treasury bonds. That's what I believe; fit me for a tin hat.
But the pattern is tight, has relieved all of the previous unhealthy bull pressure and is in a much more healthy stance. Again, my guess is that gold will break down through the first support zone and then we watch to see if it finds support at the would be Wedge line in the 1400's (favored) or takes the express elevator to the next projected support in the 1300's.
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That is a Descending Triangle and it is running out of room (with the bottom line being the horizontal support zone in the low 1500's. DescTri's are usually bearish, but they are also usually 'continuation' patterns as opposed to the current would-be reversal [ed: from up to down].
But there is an alternate view and that involves a decline to the high 1400's, which if held, would reinforce the pattern as being a bullish Falling Wedge, not a DescTri.
There is some bearish Descending Triangle hype out there (to go with the opposing 'gold to 3500 cause the system is falling apart!' hype).
The reality is that the relic is an anchor to honest money and it has been beaten down systematically since the panicked momo's wrecked it last summer. 'WHAT'S WRONG WITH GOLD?!?!?' scream people who do not get the concept of patience.
I happen to believe that gold first blew out from its own unhealthy sponsorship and then for some months now has been held down with the help of the Fed's manipulative policies in Treasury bonds. That's what I believe; fit me for a tin hat.
But the pattern is tight, has relieved all of the previous unhealthy bull pressure and is in a much more healthy stance. Again, my guess is that gold will break down through the first support zone and then we watch to see if it finds support at the would be Wedge line in the 1400's (favored) or takes the express elevator to the next projected support in the 1300's.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm
Subscribe to NFTRH or
Subscribe to the free eLetter

Gold has done nothing wrong. It's those "three horsemen" who fell off their horses a long time ago and they can't get back up.
ReplyDeleteWho or what are the 3 horsemen, PK?
DeleteDamn those 3 snowmen. And at 100 degrees today I don't see them coming back just yet. Actually they melted when HUI dropped out of the bear flag in March and it's been risk management ever since. That was high on the list of really lousy calls, though.
DeleteI am sorry Gary; I must have been concentrating on the Animal Planet channel this morning. I meant to say the 3 Snowmen
ReplyDeleteand BTW, I should have mentioned that is spite of their nasty fall, you have managed their fall from grace with excellent risk management
ReplyDeleteDohhh, answered your prev. post before reading this one. Yes, risk management is everything because it is the only way to take out insurance against one's own boneheadedness.
DeleteYou do not sub to the newsletter, right? I cannot go into too much detail on the blog but always try to have market risk parameters going in the letter. Manage risk first... always. Then speculate.
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ReplyDeleteRegards: MCX, MCX Tips