"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

HUI big picture, screw ups and all...

Here at the guru free blog and its newsletter that features only a hard working chart and psych guy, it is okay to be wrong because it is okay to be human.  So I choose to own my mis-steps as well as the good steps.

In 2010 and 2011 there was a technical target on HUI of 888 (and higher) based on a measurement of the now defunct Cup & Handle.  The C&H became defunct when a Bear Flag (not readily obvious on this big picture monthly chart) broke down in March and the red dotted neckline (which had been the lower line of a would be 'Handle) was violated.  Risk managed adjustments were made in the newsletter right away.

If that same Cup were to form again, I'd put an upside target on it again because you can't try to out think the charts.  There was a Handle to a potential Cup that was not activated because HUI failed to break upward above 630 (thus breaking the Handle) and instead, broke downward and activated a topping pattern. 

Huey still deals with the neckline to that pattern to this day.  There are positive signs in play with respect to the possibility of a lasting bottoming.  These appear mostly on daily and weekly charts.  But I wanted to throw up the monthly here to own the bad 888 target before moving forward. 

Meanwhile, shorter term TA has guided us since March and it will continue to do so for what lay ahead.

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