We are obviously realigning sentiment in the broad market to such a degree that the crash alarmists (at least the ones that put their views out publicly) from May/June have had a chance to retool their presentation. You see, it is now time for the pitch men to portray having been right about this rally (or at least to sweep a previous stance under the rug) and to play bull smart Alec.
Where once the deflationists caught a buzz with the rising T bond and US dollar, now the inflation users get their turn with rising T bond yields and a correcting USD. It was the dumber deflationists that were preaching to sell all assets and raise cash when the T bond was critically over bought and so many assets were at critical support.
Now it is time for the inflationists to step up and start pitching. Come on boys! Who wants some copper? How about coffee? Isn't there some soy bean hysteria kicking up too? The Fed is gonna PRINT!!!! Oh wait, that's not happening quite yet. Well, give it some time say the inflationists.
Everybody into the pool. That will be the message of the bulls right into another turning point. Meanwhile, the CPCE's 20 day exponential moving average continues to burrow down toward our target. The gold-silver ratio and Uncle Buck continue right on plan and things are making sense.
In that regard, when the Tickersense blogger sentiment poll shows up in my inbox later in the week I am likely to check off 'Biiwii, Bearish' for the first time since the spring with regard to the 30 day forward looking window on the SPX.
The time to be bullish on a risk vs. reward basis is well in the past.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm
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Where once the deflationists caught a buzz with the rising T bond and US dollar, now the inflation users get their turn with rising T bond yields and a correcting USD. It was the dumber deflationists that were preaching to sell all assets and raise cash when the T bond was critically over bought and so many assets were at critical support.
Now it is time for the inflationists to step up and start pitching. Come on boys! Who wants some copper? How about coffee? Isn't there some soy bean hysteria kicking up too? The Fed is gonna PRINT!!!! Oh wait, that's not happening quite yet. Well, give it some time say the inflationists.
Everybody into the pool. That will be the message of the bulls right into another turning point. Meanwhile, the CPCE's 20 day exponential moving average continues to burrow down toward our target. The gold-silver ratio and Uncle Buck continue right on plan and things are making sense.
In that regard, when the Tickersense blogger sentiment poll shows up in my inbox later in the week I am likely to check off 'Biiwii, Bearish' for the first time since the spring with regard to the 30 day forward looking window on the SPX.
The time to be bullish on a risk vs. reward basis is well in the past.
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm
Subscribe to NFTRH or
Subscribe to the free eLetter
US doesn't have to print, don't you read the news? China's started doing major reverse repos, and the Eurozone will finally decide to print to fix their debt crisis. Printing is going on external to the US.
ReplyDeleteI suspect there's a lot of negativity to work off before risk can be said to be too high. However, mid-September is when the bad news is supposed to start (Dutch elections, Troika, German supreme court etc), so maybe we'll work off that negativity in the next week or two.